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The Financial Express

Premier League top-four race intensifies, Chelsea and Arsenal are favourites


Premier League top-four race intensifies, Chelsea and Arsenal are favourites

Along with whopping prize money, the most important thing a top four position secures for a Premier League side is a Champions League qualification.

Nobody wants to miss out on players they can afford but can't attract because of being absent in the Champions League, hence the race to top four often brings a lot of excitement.

Liverpool and Manchester City are apparently fighting a different battle, and they are uncatchable for the rest of the units.

Chelsea, once a title contender, has found themselves barely surviving in the top four. The fight for top four, thus, boils down to the remaining four giants of English football - Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United.

Current scenario

Chelsea are third with 59 points from 29 matches with a sizable goal difference of 35, which is the best among its competitors for the top four. Tottenham moved to fourth place with a win against Newcastle but are equal on points with Arsenal who has a game in hand.

Manchester United seems to have fallen behind in the race a bit after securing only 51 points from 30 games.

Form analysis

All the top four aspirants, apart from Manchester United, are enjoying a good run of form.

Arsenal have been beaten twice in their last 12 matches, on both occasions, by the title contenders Liverpool and Manchester City, the latter nicking the points by scoring during the extra time.

Conte's Tottenham also recovered from a bad run of games and have recorded more goals than any other teams in 2022, thanks to the January additions of Dejan Kulusevski and Rodrigo Bentancur who changed the structure of the team. Spurs won 5 out of the last 6 games, losing only at Old Trafford to a phenomenal Cristiano Ronaldo Hattrick.

Chelsea's records are also similar to Arsenal and Tottenham. They won 5 consecutive games in the Premier League but stumbled against relatively inferior opponent Brentford at the Stamford Bridge.

Fans would hope it was a drop off in energy after playing so many games, and because most players returned from international break recently, unlike Brentford, who had the luxury of having most of their players present in training.

Manchester United are almost on the brink of losing the race for top four. Their poor run of games in recent times cost them big time. Especially results like Watford, Southampton and Burnley where they managed to take only three points.

The woes compounded after the humiliation in the Manchester derby and now that they failed to beat Leicester at home, there's nothing to suggest that they are going to qualify for Champions League, unless some magic unfolds.

Fixture difficulty

Tottenham has the easiest run of fixtures among all of them. They are yet to play at Anfield. However, putting aside the Anfield match, most of their matches are winnable. Arsenal at home will be a tricky and probably one of the most important contests of the season, alongside Liverpool vs Manchester City.

Arsenal have to play at Stamford Bridge, Spurs Stadium and London Stadium (West Ham's home) while they have to host Manchester United at the Emirates later this month. But, Arteta's men are playing positive football and the games in hand would give them an advantage.

The Manchester United fixture doesn’t seem kind enough as well, they have to visit some of the difficult stadiums in the Premier League including Anfied, Emirates and Amex (Brighton's home) and see off a home match against Chelsea.

On the other hand, Chelsea have a crucial match against Arsenal at the Stamford Bridge this month, and a visit to Old Trafford will be difficult one for them.

Where teams need to improve

Arsenal's primary concern is the thin squad. Injury to the likes of Thomas Partey, Bukayo Saka, Alexandre Lacazette or Ben White can change the scenario for them.

Tottenham are dangerous offensively but quite shaky defensively. Before the arrival of Bentancur, they were in shortage of a progressive passer. That's sorted now, but he needs to do this consistently.

Chelsea are apparently overperforming and quite lucky to have been able to grind results where they didn't deserve them fully. The Brentford game is a reality check for them. Tuchel knows the demands now, and there's no time to sleep on thinking they have secured the top four.

For Manchester United, they have to hope their rivals are dropping points before they win games.

As things Stand, Chelsea and Arsenal are favourites for top 4, but Tottenham are not too far from knocking their door.

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