President Donald Trump on Tuesday pulled the United States out of an international nuclear deal with Iran, raising the risk of conflict in the Middle East, upsetting European allies and casting uncertainty over global oil supplies.
Trump said in a televised address from the White House that he would reimpose US economic sanctions on Iran to undermine
“a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.”
The 2015 agreement, worked out by the United States, five other world powers and Iran, lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran limiting its nuclear program. The pact was designed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.
But Trump complained that the accord, the signature foreign policy achievement of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, did not address Iran’s ballistic missile program, its nuclear activities beyond 2025 or its role in conflicts in Yemen and Syria.
Trump’s decision intensifies the strain on the trans-Atlantic alliance since he took office 16 months ago. One by one, European leaders came to Washington and tried to meet his demands, while pleading with him to preserve the deal.
By the middle of last week, however, it was becoming increasingly clear to some diplomats that Trump would not be moved. “We felt like we were going through the motions,” said a person close to the negotiations.
Even Trump’s top aides had not been seeking aggressively to talk Trump out of withdrawing because his mind had been made up, a White House official said.
The Trump administration kept the door open to negotiating another deal with allies, but it is far from clear if the Europeans would go for that and if they could convince Iran to accept it.
The leaders of Britain, Germany and France, which were signatories to the deal along with China and Russia, said in a joint statement that Trump’s decision was a cause for “regret and concern.”
A Western diplomat was more pointed.
“It announces sanctions for which the first victims will be Trump’s European allies,” the diplomat said, adding that it was clear Trump did not care about the alliance.
Abandoning the Iran pact was one of the most consequential decisions of Trump’s high-stakes “America First” policy, which has led him to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord, come close to a trade war with China and pull out of an Asian-Pacific trade deal.
It also appeared to reflect the growing influence within the administration of Iran hawks like new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton. Both favored getting out of the deal but did not need to press their case as Trump had already made up his mind, a senior White House official said.
Trump had reluctantly been granting Iran sanctions relief every few months and by middle of 2017 was already furious at aides for trying to persuade him to stay in the deal, a source said.
Bolton told reporters on Tuesday that Trump did not withdraw from the agreement until now “because he gave repeated opportunities to try to fix the deal.”
Benefiting hardliners?
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that Iran would remain in the deal without Washington. Nevertheless, Trump’s decision to exit the deal could tip the balance of power in favor of hardliners looking to constrain Rouhani’s ability to open up to the West.
Iran denies it has tried to build atomic weapons and says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. UN inspectors say Iran has not broken the nuclear deal and senior US officials themselves have said several times that Iran is in technical compliance with the pact.
Iranian state television said Trump’s decision to withdraw was “illegal, illegitimate and undermines international agreements.”
Renewing sanctions would make it much harder for Iran to sell its oil abroad or use the international banking system.
Iran is the third-largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and pumps about 3.8 million barrels per day of crude, or just under 4 per cent of global supply. China, India, Japan and South Korea buy most of its 2.5 million bpd of exports.
According to the US Treasury, sanctions related to Iran’s energy, auto and financial sectors will be re-imposed in three and six months.
Oil prices recouped some losses after Trump’s announcement, in a volatile session in which prices slumped as much as 4 per cent earlier in the day.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled 1.7 per cent lower at $74.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 ended the session 2.4 per cent lower at $69.06 per barrel.
Wall Street remained in negative territory, while energy stocks cut earlier losses after Trump spoke.
Licenses for Boeing Co (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA) to sell passenger jets to Iran will be revoked, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said, scuttling a $38 billion deal.
‘Rotten’ deal
Trump said the nuclear agreement did not prevent Iran from cheating and continuing to pursue nuclear weapons.
“It is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement,” he said. “The Iran deal is defective at its core.”
Less than one in three Americans agrees with Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the deal, according to a Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll released on Tuesday.
The poll, conducted May 4-8, ahead of the Republican president’s announcement to end the deal, found that 29 per cent of adults wanted to end it, while 42 per cent said the United States should remain in and the remaining 28 per cent said they “don’t know.”
Trump said he was willing to negotiate a new deal with Iran, but Tehran already has ruled that out and threatened unspecified retaliation if Washington pulled out.
Obama described Trump’s decision to withdraw from the deal, known formally as the JCPOA, as “misguided.”
“I believe that the decision to put the JCPOA at risk without any Iranian violation of the deal is a serious mistake,” Obama said in a statement.
Iran’s growing military and political power in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq worries the United States, Israel and US Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia.
Israel has traded blows with Iranian forces in Syria since February, stirring concern that major escalation could be looming.
According to Reuters, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a televised address lauding Trump’s Iran policy and alluding to the tensions over Syria.
Saudi Arabia, Iran’s arch-foe in the Middle East, and Washington’s other Gulf Arab allies also welcomed Trump’s decision.
Trump devoted part of his speech to the “long-suffering people of Iran,” criticizing Iran’s rulers and saying “the future of Iran belongs to its people.”
