Bangladesh's journey towards the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) started by integrating SDGs into the 7th Five Year Plan (2016-2020). In this sense, Bangladesh can be called an early starter in implementation of SDGs.
Compared to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), SDGs are much broader and all-encompassing development agenda. The public sector alone can not achieve its objectives. Considering this, the government of Bangladesh has adopted a 'whole of society' approach for implementation and attainment of the SDGs. The 'Mapping of Ministries/Divisions by Targets in Implementation of SDGs Aligning with 7th FYP (2016-2020)', a first formal document towards implementation of the SDGs, has been completed.
The government undertook a comprehensive study of data gap analysis for SDG monitoring. The study report titled 'Data Gap Analysis for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Bangladesh Perspective', found that Bangladesh is facing a 'considerable' data gap for monitoring the SDGs as data of less than one-third of the indicators are readily available while two-thirds are either partially available or not available at all.
The General Economics Division (GED), the Planning Commission has also conducted a study on 'SDG Financing Strategy: Bangladesh Perspective' to assess resources need to implement SDGs and map out financial strategy that would be required for successful implementation of the SDGs. The study provides a well-defined framework that outlines the goal and target-wise additional estimated cost at 2015-16 constant price. The 7th FYP extended growth scenario (7.0 per cent plus) projects that the GDP growth rate would be at 9.0 per cent by FY 2030.
The report estimates that an additional amount, over the current provision of investment related to SDGs by public sectors and external sources, would be US$ 928.48 billion at 2015-16 constant prices. This amount would be required for SDG implementation over the period of FY 2017-FY 2030, which is 19.75 per cent of the accumulated GDP under the 7th FYP extended growth scenario. The annual average cost of SDGs would be US$ 66.32 billion (at constant prices) for this period.
A monitoring and evaluation framework for SDG implementation has also been finalised. This framework will have a web-based data repository system to facilitate data collection, analysis, progress tracking and reporting.
CHALLENGES AHEAD: Traditional sources of funding are insufficient to implement the SDGs. The government needs to find innovative ways of financing both from the public and the private sectors, development partners and ensure effective and efficient ways for utilisation. Moreover, the implementation of the 7th Plan requires total investment of 34.4 per cent of GDP by 2020, of which the private sector is expected to provide 26.6 per cent of GDP.
Population momentum: Bangladesh's population has been growing rapidly, going from just over 108 million in 1990 to 160 million in 2016. Population has been projected to grow to over 200 million by 2050. A large population together with high population growth requires a faster growth of agricultural production to ensure food and nutritional security. The growth rate of crop sector has been declining. The increase in agricultural production will inevitably put significant pressure on environment and put pressure on resource availability for human development.
Unplanned urbanisation: Bangladesh has been experiencing a rapid increase in urban population. In 1990, 20 per cent of the population lived in urban areas. This increased to 35 per cent in 2016 and it is expected to overtake the share of rural population approximately in 2040. The rapid migration to urban areas and the inadequate infrastructure and access to open space to meet the growing demand are serious problems for the country.
Natural disasters and climate change: Bangladesh experiences frequent natural disasters. These can lead to deaths, damage of infrastructure and economic assets, and have a negative impact on the livelihood of people, particularly the ones living in poverty. Bangladesh is considered one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, the 5th of the most hazard-prone countries of the world.
Utilisation of resources: Availability of resources does not necessarily guarantee success in SDGs. Efficient and effective use of resources can be more instrumental than just having adequate resources. In this connection, it is important to assess what resources are needed, how resources are used and for whom the resources should be used.
Skill development and quality education: Around 13 million 15-29 aged young population is not in education, employment and training, according to Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2015-16, which suggests that a large number of young population remains unutilised. If they can be trained up and provided with education and employment, the scenario will be totally different. This will have a long-term consequence in per capita income, growth, poverty and health outcome. Further, improving quality of education in recent times poses a big concern.
Competitiveness: In spite of all the above challenges, Bangladesh for the first time was placed in the top 100 (99 out of 137 countries) in 2017 in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report. But corruption still remains the major obstacle for doing business in the country. Bangladesh has to keep up the momentum of on-going reforms to make smoother business climate reducing transaction cost substantially. The realisation of One-stop Service Act-2017 will be a landmark step in attracting investment from abroad.
Governance challenges: Bangladesh has made notable progress in governance indicators. There are, however, scopes for much improvement. The governance issue is particularly critical in the use of public resources, service delivery of institutions, transports, law enforcement, judiciary, land administration, tax and customs, as they are deemed corrupt service-providers in Bangladesh. Digitalisation can be an effective tool to address these governance challenges.
Taming inequality and regional disparity: The declining share of bottom 5 per cent income (the share of national income was 0.78 per cent in 2010 and 0.23 per cent in 2016) and increasing share of top 5 per cent income means that unless inequality issues are rightly addressed, the country will have to face bitter experience of social unrest, marginalisation to a greater degree in the forthcoming days. Further, poverty is severely intense in some districts and the disparity is widespread. Kurigram has population with 70.8 per cent under upper poverty line, followed by Dinajpur with 64.3 per cent and Bandarban with 63.2 per cent respectively while the incident of poverty in Narayanganj is just 2.6 per cent. National average of below poverty is 22.37 per cent in 2017 as projected in the 7th FYP.
WAY FORWARD: Bangladesh witnessed that investment in girls' education, immunisation, primary education, family planning and basic health services in the 1980s and 1990s yielded positive outcome recognised in the MDG era. The government has to continue its effort in human development particularly in basic health services, ensure quality education; training and skill development as the optimal goal of development of creating a knowledge-based society.
Bangladesh has to pay attention in overcoming infrastructure, transport and communication gaps to harness growth and deliver what an upper middle-income country looks like. Fast-track projects are such kind of efforts which deserve to be continued.
The next big concern of Bangladesh will be to ensure quality education. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2015-16 suggests unemployment rate is the highest for those with tertiary education, which is staggeringly 9.0 per cent. We have very low budgetary support for research that is well below 1.0 per cent of GDP
It is undeniable that the country saw a rise in female participation in the labour force over the last decade; yet the participation rate is just 36 per cent, well below the global average of 49 per cent.
DIVERSIFICATION OF EXPORT: The export basket of Bangladesh is concentrated to a few number of items, which should draw substantial attention of the policymakers. The government has been providing incentives to infant industries over a long period. The business community must understand that incentives from the government cannot be for good. They also have to look for improving their own competitiveness.
There is a growing evidence of partnership that can propel shared prosperity. Apart from benefiting from regional building blocks, the government must continue to seek G2G initiatives from new destination. The G2G initiative is likely to gear up establishing targeted economic zones. The Policy for Implementing PPP Projects through Government to Government (G2G) Partnership, 2017 is an on-time effort made by the government. The government will need to promote Business-to-Business Initiative in terms of manpower recruits.
In conclusion, the implementation of the 7th Plan, SDGs and the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, in larger part will rely on combination of three factors, namely resource mobilisation, improving governance and forging cooperation among all parties. The resource flow should reflect the effort of the government, commitment of development partners and the responsibility of the private sector. Any deviation from this combination might jeopardise unlocking of development potential of Bangladesh, strategised succinctly in the 7th Plan documents.
Prof. Shamsul Alam is Senior Secretary, General Economics Division, Planning Commission. The article is adapted from the paper he presented on Wednesday at the Keynote Session of the January 17-18 Bangladesh Development Forum. The second part of the article will be published on Saturday.
