Except earthquakes all natural calamities give prior warnings before strike. They range from cyclones and hurricanes to volcanic eruptions. Floods take days, and even weeks, before they begin affecting human localities. These disasters give people enough time to get prepared for facing the onslaughts. Even tornadoes and twisters also alert experienced people to the approaching dangers. Landslides do not come with forewarnings, but excessive rainfall on a muddy hill may prompt many to read the message.
Almost same is the case with volcanoes. The latent volcano on the popular tourist spot of Bali in Indonesia has been rumbling for a month, with ashes spewing out unabated. Terrified residents are leaving the mountain area, with flights cancelled due to clouds of volcanic ashes obstructing the flight paths. This is a common spectacle in regions vulnerable to volcanic eruptions. Bangladesh has no volcanoes, but it has been battered by devastating storms and floods through the ages. Owing to the calamities' frequencies, the people have long learnt the ways of how to mitigate the impact of these calamities. Disaster preparedness and management in present Bangladesh is one of the great national imperatives.
To the worries of experts dealing with natural calamities, the country has yet to fully realise the dreadful threat which is posed by a major earthquake. To speak forthrightly, the spectre of a massive earthquake looms over Bangladesh. It has been there for two decades. But, earthquakes catch humans unawares.
According to seismologists, the Himalayan region has been witnessing a major earthquake every one hundred years since prehistoric times. According to this geophysical pattern, a major earthquake has been overdue for Bangladesh since the late 1990s. With the Assam-Bengal great earthquake hitting the region in 1897, one hundred and twenty years have elapsed. That a big earthquake has yet to jolt this part of South Asia, including Bangladesh, should not make one feel relieved. Geophysicists brace for a massive calamity in this country anytime.
According to seismological science, a major earthquake is preceded by a series of tremors in a given area. Bangladesh had its share in this respect over the last 10-15 years. Moreover, the devastating earthquake in the region's Nepal in 2015 has alarmingly enhanced the likelihood of a similar disaster in Bangladesh.
Against the backdrop of these portents, seminars and discussions are being continuously held in the country, especially in the capital. These meets do not lack the realisation of the gravity of a massive earthquake, nor is there any dearth of expert opinions. It is unanimously accepted that in the last one and half decades, these discussions were able to create a considerable amount of earthquake awareness in the urban areas. There has been a flipside, though. In spite of launching spectacular plans, many fizzled out later --- thanks to policy indecisions at the higher level. Absence of synergy and coordination between government wings as well as change of the key-persons set to implement a programme has also played a dominant role. Lack of adequately trained manpower is feared to contribute to the exacerbation of any post-earthquake situation in Dhaka. All this may have led to many vital plans going astray half way through.
A recent discussion on contingency plans for coping with the aftermath of a massive earthquake in Dhaka appears focused on a less discussed area. Unlike other natural disasters, earthquakes strike a locality catching it off guard. It also lasts for a short period, occasionally followed by several aftershocks. Earthquakes' destructive power is demonstrated in a short span of time keeping them apart from other calamities. The duration of the highly calamitous earthquakes ranges from 30-40 seconds to five minutes. Earthquakes' completely unannounced strikes, thus, call for laying emphasis on the emergency measures --- beginning immediately after a strike. Most importantly, due to its uncertain nature the calamity demands a large amount of stress on contingency plans.
The discussion held in the capital centred on Dhaka's earthquake preparedness with special focus on Dhaka City Corporations' contingency plans. It, in fact, underscored the imperative of putting into effect foolproof strategies to face a presumably imminent disaster in the city. Due to its nearly frenzied growth spree, coupled with unplanned building of concrete structures, the Bangladesh capital is set to be exposed to dreadful scenarios after a big earthquake. In this urban nightmare feared to descend on Dhaka anytime, the critical role the two city corporations comes to the fore. Along with the other relevant agencies, the Dhaka-centric functions of the two city corporations prompt them to remain in prominence in a post-quake situation. The meet, participated by experts, among others, has also helped the corporations keep their deserved importance. Perhaps echoing the deliberations of similar discussions in the past, the speakers here also homed in on some distressing issues. As they delved into the virtual lack of progress of most of the government programmes, the same old picture emerged --- much to the disappointment of the conscious city residents.
The discussion, however, has emphasised a truth that applies to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. It has observed that risk reduction measures taken prior to a disaster are more important than post-disaster management responses. A sad aspect of the contingency plans is they are replete with loopholes and drawbacks that have enough power to spoil an otherwise well-conceived preparedness. The meeting has been told about the eagerness of Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) to be a party to the main contingency plan. But it has reportedly been given a short shrift by the higher authorities. On the other hand, Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) has been said to be working on earthquake disaster management since 2011. The corporation is setting up warehouses in all its five zones for post-quake emergency tools, especially those needed for search and rescue operations. A comparative study of the two city corporations' capabilities highlights a dismal fact: performance imbalance and lack of evenness in the allocation of resources.
It's not that the government authorities remained oblivious to the looming threat of a big earthquake. In fact they have proved their eagerness to face any earthquake-related eventuality. A number of programmes have been undertaken, but those largely were beset with foot-dragging. Few carried out the necessary follow-ups. Many such plans have fallen through. However, in 2009 the government prepared a few ambitious contingency plans under its Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP). It comprised more than 20 government agencies. Besides, a programme called National Strategic Plan on Disaster Management was taken up for the period of 2010-2015. It could not make any remarkable progress. To make up for the inaction, a new 5-year plan covering 2016-2020 is going to be formulated soon. However, many people still cannot take heart.
Whenever the spectre of a massive earthquake flashes in mind, it does so to remind us of the crippling limitations in every respect. They constitute not only the horrific dearth of rescue tools and emergency medical supports. The limitations cover, in a broader context, also the capital's unwieldy growth featuring feverish construction of unplanned high-rises and the narrow roads in most of the neighbourhoods. Dhaka's being one of the most densely populated countries in the world also adds to the vital necessity of a well-orchestrated contingency plan.
As a town planner views the scenario, in the event of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Dhaka 30,599 million tonnes of concrete debris are feared to be generated from 72,000 affected and collapsed buildings. It may take thousands of trips for rubble-filled trucks to clear the badly-hit city areas. All this is in addition to the scores of deaths and injuries that will follow a disaster, as well as an urban life filled with innumerable disruptions and hazards.
When it comes to the question of a major earthquake in Dhaka's greater urban area, the present situation is virtually a time bomb just waiting to go off. The relevant government ministries, agencies and the two city corporations have little time to take lengthy preparations. This highly dreaded calamity can strike an area any moment. To no cases of natural disasters the concept of contingency plans applies more fittingly. Bangladesh may have been spared a destructive earthquake till now. But unpredictability defines nature to a great extent. This is what calls for a flawless and multi-pronged national contingency plan.
shihabskr@ymail.com