The success of foreign policy depends on many factors. Internal political stability plays an important role in strengthening foreign relations, apart from creating an atmosphere of mutual trust among nations. The United States has undergone a sort of populist and economic nationalist insurrection following the presidential election in November. During the poll campaign, the Republican presidential candidate lambasted NATO and other US obligations. Although European leaders, including French President Francois Hollande, German chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Theresa May offered customary congratulations to the president-elect Donald Trump, septicism has been expressed by the French President by saying, "Trump's election has brought an era of uncertainty." He was of the opinion that some of Trump's remarks during the campaign do not fit the values that the US and France have shared for years.
Since Trump won the US presidential election, attention of the leaders of the Western world was focused on the United States in view of his rhetoric during election campaigns on foreign policy in particular. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, which is a signatory project of President Barack Obama, is in trouble as a result of Trump's criticism. Of the signatory countries, Peruvian President Pedro Pablo proposed to invite China and Russia to join the TPP without the US while the European Union has decided to cancel the Trans-Pacific trade agreement with the US. Obama's initiative of TPP was meant to set rules for fast-growing Pacific Rim.
On the other hand, Obama's Asia pivot is in trouble. The Philippines President paid a visit to China in spite of a dispute over an island in the South China Sea and agreed to develop relations while Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to invite Chinese investment in Malaysia. The Malaysian Prime Minister signed 14 agreements including a defence deal with China. Beijing has established relations with Cambodia which would play a pivotal role in expanding the latter's Belt and Road Initiative which is ancient Silk Road. The 21st century's Maritime Silk Road was initiated by President Xi Jinping. Cambodia, being a member of ASEAN, did not take side against China on the dispute over several islands in the South China Sea.
Japan, South Korea and the Baltic countries will have to reconsider their defence strategies as a result of Trump's warning that these countries may not be able to count on US assistance in case of attack or war. South Korea should think about allowing US troops on its soil because the President-elect had asked South Korea to share the cost of stationing US troops in Seoul. One could not foresee what is going to happen in Eastern Europe as well. A possibility could not be ruled out that Donald Trump's presidency would remove US missile system from Eastern Europe to please Russia. The Russian Dumas (parliament) erupted in cheers when Trump was declared winner in the US presidential election which means Vladimir Putin's expansion of the Russian Federation will be completed. Economic sanctions against Russia would be lifted as these were imposed after the 2014 annexation of the Crimea Peninsula of Ukraine in violation of international treaty.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzu Abe, who possibly got scared about Trump's warning during the election campaign, met the US President-elect at Trump Tower in New York on November 17.
The nuclear deal with Iran by six Western countries and the Paris climate accord are historic and these agreements are irreversible indeed. Having signed the nuclear deal with Iran by six countries after clearance was given by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, most Western countries signed several agreements with Iran to do business. The Paris climate accord has also been ratified by most of the countries of the world. Therefore, there is no reason to call climate change a 'hoax' by President-elect Trump nor could he afford to alienate Western allies on nuclear deal with Iran. However, on November 17, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution to block the sale of commercial aircraft to Iran by Boeing and Airbus to counter the nuclear deal with Iran which the Obama administration approved.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is the brainchild of the leaders of the US, the UK and France against expansion of the former Soviet Union while forbidding the revival of nationalist militants. The Warsaw Treaty Organisation of the communist countries, led by the Soviet Union, was formed on May 04 of 1955 to counter NATO, but it saw its demise with the fall of the Soviet empire in December of 1991.
Following the annexation of the Crimea peninsula of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in 2014 and making political gamble in northern part of Ukraine by pro-Russians with instigation from Russia, cold war began with the Western countries. Both America and Western countries imposed economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. President-elect Trump has assured Vladimir Putin, a strongman and former KGB chief, of improving relations with Russia. Possibly it would be hard for Trump to sell the idea of improving ties with Russia since two powerful Senate members of the Republican Party do not subscribe to his idea.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Prime Minister and the Mexican President have expressed their desire to re-negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the administration of Trump. With China, the second biggest economy of the world, Trump should consider consequences if Beijing takes counter-measures in case he goes ahead with raising tariffs on imported Chinese goods. In fact, American consumers would be affected in the ultimate analysis.
Over and above, there is a stunt coming from North Korea. The Ambassador of North Korea to the United Nations based in Geneva told Reuters that his country would re-establish relations with the US provided the latter withdraws troops and equipment from South Korea and secures a peace treaty ending war on the Korean peninsula. Possibly this reaction from North Korea is in response to Trump's recent gesture to sit with the President of North Korea to dispense with nuclear arsenal from Pyongyang. The North Korean administration might have been encouraged by recent series of protests against the administration of South Korea, apart from the demand of withdrawing TADD defence shield by America.
Meanwhile, the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission in a joint letter have urged Trump to come to Europe for talks at the earliest opportunity on issues like migrants, climate change and Russian threat to Ukraine. The letter said that "it is more important than ever to strengthen trans-Atlantic relations". They said, "Only by cooperating closely can the European Union and America continue to make a difference when dealing with unprecedented challenges such as Daesh (ISIS) threats to the Ukraine sovereignty, climate change and migrants." It will be interesting to see how Trump's administration tackles international issues during his tenure in office.
The writer is a retired diplomat from Bangladesh.
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