Deconstruction and demarche have become the pivotal policy arsenals of Trump administration. Whatever agreements Obama administration made with the foreign countries have topped the list of the government to repudiate. Social or development measures taken either through the Congress or through the executive orders of the previous government also occupied the hit list of the White House. A handful of people led by Stephen Bannon are the architect of this retrenchment strategy. The voices of diplomats, experts and media make very little wave in the White House. Electoral pledge is the mantra of President Trump.
Electoral pledge, of course, matters most but one should not lose sight of the circumstances under which the commitments are made to the electorate. Trump has never been in the government and possesses very little knowledge on the process legislations are made, actions are taken and treaties with foreign countries are concluded. Most importantly Trump and his advisers had little opportunities to comprehend the consequences of their demarche. Once they came to power they were confronted with the reality which unfolded an unchartered territory for them.
Trump and the Republican heavyweights developed an obsession with the Affordable Health Care Act known as Obama Care. Trump promised to excoriate the Obama Care on the very first day in office. But the first day or even the first week were distracted by media's report on the crowd assembled in front of the Capitol Hill to watch the inauguration ceremony. Trump claimed the crowd was much larger than the one turned out eight years ago on Obama's inauguration but the media reported otherwise. He denounced the media for bias against him. Nonetheless, he abrogated the Obama Care in the first month but realised that without an alternative mechanism in place, the abrogation would leave a vacuum and millions will have difficulties in getting health care. He instructed the Republican lawmakers to formulate an alternative plan.
As the White House and Republican lawmakers began working on the plan issues like subsidies to insurance companies for the poor, penalties for the people opting out of health care, funding of the Medicaid, obligation of employers towards employees, defunding of the Planned Parenthood providing health services to thousands of women many from low income groups came up for consideration. Debates followed. Many Congressmen were afraid that people in their constituencies would be angry with subsidies removed, Planned Parenthood defunded and Medicaid rolled back. Adjustments were made but not everybody felt satisfied. Twenty Republican members remained defiant. The bill was passed at the House of Representatives by 237 in favour and 234 against. The office of Budget and Management estimated that under the new bill 26 to 40 million people would be deprived of the heath care. This is a flagrant betrayal of electoral pledge "everybody would be brought under health care at much lesser cost". Let's see whether the Senate approves the bill or impose amendments to safeguard the uninsured population.
"Islam hates us" - Trump said in an interview during the campaign and intended to set a new profile for the Muslims. True to his commitment, the administration issued a travel ban in February preventing travellers from seven Muslim countries entering the United States. This resulted in a chaotic situation in major airports, thousands having valid documents got stranded and a few were deported. This was challenged in the courts and the courts suspended the travel ban. The administration issued a revised travel ban and this is also under the scrutiny of the court.
It could be mentioned that the United States has been highly conservative in accepting the refugees in the recent past. At the peak of the crisis in 2015, Germany welcomed 100,000 refugees and Canada accepted 60,000 but the US accepted around 10,000 and pledged to take 60,000 by end 2017. The travel ban will now halt the refugees entering into the United States for the time being.
After biding good-bye to Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) and denouncing the NATO Trump has now walked out of the Paris Climate Agreement. This is a devastating step. Following months of painstaking negotiations the Paris Agreement was concluded and the United States had incorporated its own parameters and targets in the agreement. The agreement had the broad support from the private sector as well.
The global warming is no longer a myth, it's an undeniable fact. Scientists provided irrefutable statistics fifteen years ago warning that unless corrective measures are collectively taken irreparable damage will take place which will affect us and the generations to come. Now people around the globe have witnessed their lands being washed away, shelters destroyed and crops damaged by natural calamities at frequent intervals. Data is no longer required to confirm the dangers posed by global warming. The Paris agreement though set the limit of warming at below 2-degree Celsius, countries were allowed to determine targets of "emissions control" taking their respective situations into account. China set the target to reduce emissions by 60 to 65 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, India agreed reductions by 33 to 35 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, the United States set the limit at 26 to 28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025 while European Union boldly opted at 40 per cent reductions from 1990 levels by 2030.
The European Union together with 193 countries, including the Palestinian Authority, signed the Paris agreement; Syria and Nicaragua stayed back and now the United States has joined the club of climate denial. Trump wants to renegotiate but the international community does not take him seriously. Given the concerns that Paris agreement fell short of keeping the planet's warming well below 2-degree Celsius and more must be done to get warming under control, the scope of renegotiation appears nonexistent.
There has been encouraging progress on emissions cuts in India and China. The renewables are taking place much faster in China and India, they are replacing coal much faster and this led to lower emissions significantly.
President Obama in a statement reacted, "I believe the United States should be at the front of the pack. But even in the absence of American leadership, even as this administration joins the handful of nations that reject the future, I am confident that our states, cities and businesses will step up and will do even more to lead the way, and help protect for future generations the one planet we have got." His message was not without effect. Large numbers of people representing action groups, state legislatures, corporations and media turned out in front of the United Nations Headquarters and reiterated their unshakable support to the Paris Agreement. Sixty per cent Americans disapprove exiting from the climate deal.
As Trump broke with the Paris agreement, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo rolled out a plan to invest $1.5 billion in renewable energy and energy efficiency. Cuomo hopes that the investment would create 40,000 jobs in the next three years - or twice the number of mining and logging jobs in West Virginia. Other US states and businesses are moving ahead with efforts to cut emissions.
Trump is withdrawing the USA from the international forums at a time when Russia, China and Iran are emerging with aggressive policy and in cohesion. As the US walked out of the TPP China invited the countries in the Pacific to join Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the forum it has created. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in response to Trump's provocation urging to increase defence expenditure, reminded the Europeans that "in light of the present situation, there are yet more reasons that we have to take our destiny in Europe into our own hands." Her words were borne out of actions. Germany increased defence budget by $27 billion over next three years. Merkel signed a number of trade and investment agreements with the visiting Chinese Prime Minister last week. Europeans seem to have taken a conciliatory approach toward Russia on Ukraine. Trade between European firms and Iran has increased significantly.
The US departure from climate deal would create a void in leadership but there are countries willing to assume the leadership to demonstrate that Washington is in retreat, it's not indispensable.
The writer is a former official of the United Nations.
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