Somewhere in between the rhetoric, the value of subsidies in a lop-sided economy has been lost. Impressive results in crop production, friendly weather and prudent use of subsidy have taken away the perceived edge of uncertainty. The real edge exists and the latest unseasonal floods and rain have driven it home. While cut bleeds and first aid in the form of relief is applied, the ramifications aren't clear as yet. The Prime Minister is reportedly and justifiably annoyed at the knee-jerk damage estimations revealed to the media without a proper, methodical evaluation. What is apparent is that several old dykes have breached, meaning more catastrophe is to follow and that standing crops have been battered.
According to top government functionaries, the crop damage won't cause crop shortfall as plantation was higher than before. This too cannot be stated until full damage estimation has taken place. In the final quarter of the fiscal, a massive sop will be required and advance plans to plug the gap between required and available crop, cattle, poultry and fish must be pressed in place. The poisoned fish that died in thousands isn't just a loss for fishery owners but a bigger worry over replacement, given mass fish imports can't be supported with infrastructure. As India steps up cross-border cattle trade restrictions, the protein supply is likely to get a hammering. The upshot is short supply and rocketing prices. A five-day strike by butchers made its point hard and cruelly. The uncomfortable part of the equation is that the main flood season is still to come. The World Bank that for years argued against agri-subsidy might hazard comments on the way forward. Most likely they will take the easy way out and offer emergency aid.
Prices of rice have been abnormally high recently and the new crop was to have balanced it out. What happens now is anyone's guess. Affected marginal farmers have no way to pay back any agricultural loan - another hit to the exchequer but at least this is palatable. The damage to the dykes is a bigger issue and brings to fore the sheer lack of maintenance and reviews of efficacy. It's all very well for the minister concern to say 'there are learning's '; for the secretary to say 'these were designed in the sixties', but how is it everyone overlooked the term 'lifecycle'? If rivers need dredging, dams need repair and strengthening, it's not acceptable that maintenance has been ignored. Using the buzz-word of climate change to justify a dyke giving way may be sexy but it doesn't jive. Water is the lifeline in terms of river flows, reservoirs aka haors and surface water retention. Without these, the bridges and highways don't count for much.
The Farakka Barrage, constructed in gross disregard to Bangladesh's interests, has not just done what the experts had said it savaged this country's northern areas; it may be a bane if it is decommissioned and uncontrolled water flows down. Ms. Mamata Banerjee is sticking to her guns 'No Teesta water share without meeting West Bengal's needs first'. Essentially that means we are left sucking our thumbs until she and Narendra Modi can come to some agreement, though prospects of that are slim. The option of a barrage of our own, planned from the sixties is now found to be unsuitable and unacceptable to India and the work and the expense get tossed into the waste paper basket. Whoever submitted an unreal project to the Prime Minister without check and balance that too before a state visit needs to have their knuckles rapped. Of even greater urgency is a Plan B that should have been ready in any case.
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