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Politics of fear: Kenya\'s 2017 election and Bangladesh

FE Team | Published: August 07, 2017 21:58:37 | Updated: October 25, 2017 02:20:03

Politics of fear: Kenya\'s 2017 election and Bangladesh

The opposition leaders have proposed to hold protests before election, blocking roads, calling for strikes and mobilizing party supporters to continue such demonstrations for free-fair election. The government claims that the demands for a free and fair election have been met as the current election commission is independent and capable. Meanwhile the government is going through a combative relationship with the judiciary not only on the matter of judicial independence, but also because the court has overturned some politically motivated charges against the opposition party and its leaders. On August 08, 2017, the people will vote for the President, county governors and representatives across Kenya. Yes, the narrative above is not of Bangladesh but Kenya!
Kenya, a promising and vibrant economy in East Africa, is currently facing certain systemic challenges. The youth unemployment is high and country is now enjoying gross domestic product (GDP) growth without job creation. Prices of common staple goods such as maze and sugar are high as draught had destroyed crops. The government is infamous for its rampant corruption and inefficiency. On top of all these - threat of terrorism looms from groups linked with Islamic State and Al-Shabab from neighbouring Somalia. Current President Kenyatta is the son of Kenya's founding father and enjoys strong support from party and tribal loyalists. He promotes massive infrastructure projects and urges his need to be in power to finish such projects. Kenya has signed several agreements with China for large-scale infrastructure development programmes. While the opposition leader Raila Odinga claims that the projects are overambitious and enable more corruption. The civil society has voiced concerns with government controlling press and freedom of expression. Aside from these similarities, Kenya's elections are violent and disputed like those of Bangladesh's. 
On December 30, 2007, after three days of tallying votes the election commission of Kenya declared Mwai Kibaki as the winner with reports of massive rigging during the tallying process. Within hours of the result supporters of Raila Odinga, the main opposition leader, initiated violent attacks against Kibaki's supporters. The violence unexpectedly and quickly turned into a nationwide mass killing along ethnic and tribal lines that lasted for months. The post-election reforms of the constitution in 2010 focused on devolution of power through county seats. However, this also empowered local leaders and increased localised corrupt practices. 
The 2013 election was won by Uhuru Kenyatta, again with serious accusation of vote rigging. England and the US strongly critiqued the election and stated that they would shun Mr. Kenyatta. However, election happened and realities stroke back. The Western countries realized that their immediate strategic and economic interests overtrumps their stance against Kenyatta, and restored relations. His rival, Raila Odinga, did not boycott the election but went to Kenya's Supreme Court to dispute the result… in vain. President Kenyatta is of Kikuyu tribe and Odinga is of Luo tribe. The tribe factor is something we do not have in Bangladesh, unless extreme partisan loyalty of Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is considered as such. In Kenya, tribes are extremely loyal to their candidates. Even candidates with corruption charges will receive their respective tribe's unconditional support. 
This year Raila and his supporters have stated that if election rigging happens, then Kenya will burn. At party rallies they chanted "No Raila, No Peace". President Kenyatta labels Odinga as an agent of former colonial powers and a threat to Kenya's sovereignty. The European Union (EU) has sent one of the largest election observer team to Kenya for pre-and post-election monitoring. Judging from personal experiences, observers can only report discrepancy with election and provide credibility in result but they can't guarantee fairness in election in countries like Kenya and Bangladesh let alone stop another post-election violence frenzy from breaking out.  
On election years, general population of Kenya faces increased uncertainty, economic downturn and endemic violence. In 2007 the election related violence resulted a death toll of more than 1100 people. The 2013 election was comparatively "better" - only few hundred-people died from post-election violence. Kenya's electoral institution -- the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC) -- faces credibility issues and this became worse this year. On July 31, chief technical officer of Kenya's electronic voting system, Chris Msando's body was found with signs of torture. Local experts agree that this was perpetrated most likely by the government. Chris Msando designed a bespoke electronic voting system for Kenyan context that ensured the credibility of the electronic voting system. 
On August 04, there were unconfirmed allegations that unknown perpetrators raided Raila's campaign office and took away computers, servers, cellphones, surveillance cameras and ID Cards. These tactics are raising fear among the population, election officers and opposition voters that they might face violent situation again. Due to international and domestic concerns about election time-violence, this time, close to 200,000 soldiers, police officers, have been called into maintain security. Temporary measures for election time security does not solve the systemic problem Kenya is facing. This is exactly how such systemic problems came into existent -  years of temporary measures without taking the time and initiative to identify and solve the root causes. 
Kenya does not share only love for cricket with us; rather unfortunately examined similarities between these two countries are worrying. The narrative, prologue and even the local dynamics seems like a déjà vu of Bangladesh's 2014 election. Kenya's pre-election rhetoric and circumstances are similar to current pre-election dynamics of Bangladesh. These trends are not whimsical, rather they forecast a systemic process through which a country falls into perpetual crises. For now, Bangladesh is facing overtly a political crisis but within a decade multiple interconnected crises will come forth. 
Bangladesh's political economy is being held hostage by a partisan decision-making system dependent on the acrimonious relationship between the current Prime Minister and the de-facto opposition leader. However, pointing fingers at them alone would be a shallow analysis; there is a deeper, more frightening analysis that reveals the futility of this country's forecasted trajectory. Bangladesh faces a systemic dilemma; to fix the system fundamental changes are needed. Such fundamental changes bring with them external and internal risks and implementing those changes while managing the risks requires decades of planning and skilled technocrats. We did not take the time to observe, analyze and then decide what we should strive for as a country. We were always indebted with overwhelming responsibilities left behind by previous generation and respective administrations. Hence, we took time to focus on quick-fixes. 
The responsibility of 170 million people, ensuring their bare minimum sustenance, is a huge undertaking. In 1971 when the country was young and had less than half the population of now, even then it was a daunting task. A small country with limited resources and annual natural disasters was desperate to build itself. In the process deals had to be made with other countries, short-term measures were given priorities and somehow with a bit of luck and aggregated labour of such a huge population - Bangladesh came out of its extreme conditions. As the country moved forward with small steps what was necessary was nurturing future leaderships, policymakers and practice of evidence based policy making to build resilience. Unfortunately, it experienced repeatedly political leadership that arose from a cycle of authoritarian pedigree. Not only this continued under the guise of democracy rather the system evolved "magnificently" to a controlled democratic system - and a constitution amended at whim to complement such a system.    
What we should be more wary of is the prospect of Bangladesh facing a leadership vacuum. Yes, the current leadership is not ideal but the country has inadvertently been under the leadership of two familiar faces for almost 30 years. In less than a decade not only we will face multiple leadership crisis but also the dire reality that the country has fallen into a systemic trap. Required fundamental changes will disrupt the current status-quo and the system will suffer. For now, if we consider that either Awami League or BNP will come through a peaceful election in 2018, even then none of the party is ready to face the systemic challenges of 2021 let alone 2030. The politics of fear has blinded us from threats that we should be fearful of such as ecological crisis, debt crisis, and energy crisis.
The aftermath of Kenya's election and Kenya's trajectory in coming years are difficult to assess and this is true for Bangladesh as well.A free and fair election in Bangladesh is very unlikely. In such zero-sum game environment, the stakes are too high for an incumbent to take risk. In the context of 2018 Bangladesh election, political parties and specially the country's ruling government must be taking notes as Kenya goes to poll today.  
The writer is Archer Fellow, 
Lee Kuan Yew Scholar. 
E-mail: safwanrob@gmail.com
 

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