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The Financial Express

Narrowing statistical gap


Narrowing statistical gap

Not many would contest the contention that it is truly difficult to get reliable data both at macro and micro levels in Bangladesh. The problem has come into focus very often, but there have been no serious efforts to find an effective solution until now.

The other day a vernacular business daily published a report on three different data on the country's export income in the last financial year (2021-22), compiled by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), the Bangladesh Bank (BB) and the National Board of Revenue (NBR). The EPB says the income was USD 52 billion, the BB USD 49 billion and the NBR 41 billion.

These data are compiled not just for preservation. They have other practical uses in planning, disbursement of incentives and starting actions to stop illegal fund transfers. For instance, if there is a mismatch between the export revenue income and the incentives given to exporters, the central bank needs to locate the sources of incentive leakage. Besides, there could be laundering of funds through under-invoicing.

Then again, there is a gap of USD 11 billion in data compiled by the EPB and the NBR, meaning that the latter was deprived of revenue earnings by the exporters concerned.

Such dissimilarities in data available with various state institutions are a common event. Take the case of the country's annual rice output and acreage under paddy cultivation. The data compiled by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Directorate of Agriculture Extension (DoAE) hardly match, which is seen as a serious problem as far as the government's food procurement planning is concerned.

Given the situation with the prices of the main staple in the domestic market in recent times, the claim of achieving self-sufficiency in food production appears to be based on wrong statistics. The state and the private sector together imported over 900,000 metric tonnes of rice during the first seven months of the current financial year despite bumper harvests for three to four consecutive seasons. The food ministry has the plan to import more rice in the coming months.

It will not be out of place to mention here the recently published data of the latest population census, carried out by the BBS. This particular census carries immense importance in national as well as local level planning concerning almost all areas. A certain level of error is allowed in this kind of massive data-gathering work. But none knows for sure the extent of the error this time. Yet the latest census data will form the basis of most planning for the next decade.

What remains important for the entities engaged in gathering and compiling data on certain sectors is to remain in touch with each other and collate information to avoid major discrepancies. Such coordination would not only help narrow the gap in data quality but also plug revenue leakages and enable better planning at all levels.

Quality data are a prerequisite for sound planning, be it at the local level or state level. The need for ensuring the same has been reiterated umpteenth time. Unfortunately, the people at the helm of state affairs, despite being aware of its importance, are not doing enough.

 

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