French President Emmanuel Macron faced with high unemployment (close to 10 per cent), mass demonstration against his draconian labour laws, strikes by railway workers, agitations on university campuses, stoppages by Air France workers at home and failed mission to Washington to convince President Trump not to ditch the Iran nuclear deal, travelled to the antipode for a six-day tour to shore up his position domestically. It also gave him a respite from Paris which now has turned into a war zone. Macron's Pacific tour is also to assert France's position in the Pacific region in the context of rising Chinese influence and declining US hegemony. But more importantly, to give a positive spin to stay with France (while declaring his neutrality on the issue) in the forthcoming referendum in New Caledonia on whether to go independent or to stay with France.
In the context of an emerging shifting power rearrangement in the Pacific region, his visit clearly demonstrates France's attempt to strengthen its geo-strategic interests independently of the USA. In a wider context it can potentially lead to working against the USA. In this context, the self-appointed Deputy Sheriff in the Pacific can be used as a good launching pad to make the push in the region. In effect, France views Australia as "pivot'' in its drive in the region. France is the last of the European colonial powers which still maintains "territories'' in the Pacific (also in the Indian Ocean), and use that to claim and also to remain a ''Pacific power'' with special focus on the South Pacific in the context of rising Chines influence in the region. Australian Prime Minister Turnbull described France as a ''Pacific Ocean power'' which can work with Australia in pursuit of shared goals.
However, Macron has been using the term ''Indo-Pacific" in recent times. In Sydney, Macron called for a strategic alliance of France, India and Australia to respond to the challenges across what he described as the Indo-Pacific region. France has ''territories'' in the Indian ocean - Reunion Island and Mayotte and on that basis France also claims to be an Indian ocean power. Macron visited India in March to strengthen a defence partnership which even before his visit already yielded a positive outcome for the French armament industry where India bought fighter planes from France in 2016. Macron further emphasised, "This new Paris-Delhi-Canberra axis'' is absolutely key for the region and to achieve their joint objectives in the India-Pacific region. President Macron's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, follows the UK move to re-engage in the region as outlined at the last month's Commonwealth Summit.
But Macron's such optimistic forecast future somewhat got muddied as New Delhi recently has been showing signs of a less than enthusiastic participant in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, even knocked back Australia's request to participate in trilateral naval exercise next month with Japan and the USA. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meanwhile travelled to Wuhan, China April 27 to have an informal meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping to ''reset'' the bilateral relationship. He is also scheduled to visit China in June to attend a regional security summit (the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) in Qingdao. The Wuhan meeting was arranged at the behest of India in an effort to reach at a rapprochement with Beijing. India wants to avoid a repeat of the Dokhlam confrontation in the coming summer as China appears to be slowly moving back into the area with the onset of summer. Last time China gave a face-saving withdrawal by Indian troops from Dokhlam plateau, but this time India appears have lost the appetite for another armed confrontation. Both leaders agreed to deal with their differences peacefully through talks. There are very compelling strategic reasons behind India's decision to seek reconciliation with China. Modi's vision of making India great again by riding the waves with the USA has failed to secure any tangible benefits to India except as a market for selling weapons and doing the US bidding at its own cost which is also costing a lot of money. The friendship within the framework of a patron-client relationship has become very expensive for a very poor country like India. The premium to pay for the status of a client state of the USA proved to be too high for India. The problem with the current political leadership in New Delhi is that it has not only lost all historical perspectives in its zeal to make India great again but also the reality facing the country.
Macron's first port of call was Sydney, Australia where he arrived on May 01. On arrival he expressed his desire for Australia and France to forge a ''new Indo-Pacific axis'' to promote peace, stability and a rules-based order. Australian Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull reciprocated the sentiment by declaring that the President Macron's visit has taken the bilateral relationship to ''new heights''. He further legitimised France's role in the anti-China alliance by declaring France as a ''Pacific power''. He announced both the countries were ''forces for good'' in the world and emphasised greater cooperation in defence, trade and regional security in the Pacific. Both agreed to strengthen the ''strategic partnership'' with a specific focus on the South Pacific and China. Macron also used a sweetener for Australia and indicated his support for a potential Free Trade Agreement between Australia and the European Union (EU). In his Sydney news conference he thanked prime Minister Turnbull and his "delicious wife" for a very warm welcome. President Macron possibly made a straight transliteration Faux pas (delicieuse) when he wanted to mean "delightful''.
From President Macron's point of view China is also a problem for France in Africa, in particular, West African countries which France considers as its own sphere of influence. France maintains a political and military presence in its former colonies in Africa and quite often intervenes in these countries militarily. France, like India, has a very a bloated image of itself despite being a second- rate economic and military power. France's self-assumed civilisational mission (under the slogan of liberte, equalite and fraternite) in its colonies has always been a cover for French barbarism abroad, the most recent example being the bombing of Syria. France is also the example of a country in the Western world that follows the most unprincipled and opportunistic foreign policy so much so that many commentators even in the West found it difficult to understand how other fellow Western countries really conduct their foreign relations with France. But it must be emphasised that the issue of principle in foreign policy is a highly contested concept but with France it fundamentally indicates it may not hesitate to knife a friendly country if its interest clashes with that country.
The message is, Australia must watch out in building a security alliance with France in the Pacific. It must also be remembered that Australia has had rather very troubled relationship with France for a considerable period of time on the issue of French nuclear tests in the Pacific in the past. France has always been seen by Australis as a contestant for exerting influence in the region where France also maintains a significant military presence. The new Australia-France alliance is primarily a response to the declining position of the USA in the region.
A series of agreement has been announced including cybersecurity. These agreements are over and above $50-billion-dollar contract for 12 submarines awarded to the French company DCNS in 2016. But they were very careful not directly to display any hostility to China. Indeed, Macron said he thought China's rise was good news. But both Macron and Turnbull emphasised their cooperation was not in reaction to or opposition to China's rising influence in the region and they want ''rules-based'' conduct in the region which is a code word for challenging China at all levels in the region. Turnbull in a very crude jibe against China quoted the late Singaporean strong man Lee Kwan Yew saying that the Indo-Pacific order must not be reduced to one where ''the big fish eat the small fish and the small fish eat the shrimp''. The main purpose of Macron's visit to Australia is not only to forge defence and security cooperation but also greater cooperation on development in the South Pacific to counter the growing influence of China in the region. Macron in his remarks made it amply clear that France did not want any single power to exercise hegemony over the region. He also reaffirmed France's commitment to stay in the region when he responded to Turnbull's crude jibe against China and said ''I am a big fan of shrimps, especially New Caledonian shrimps''.
But President Macron's real priority in his journey to the Pacific was New Caledonia, the French ''territory''. He arrived there on May 04 in advance of a referendum on independence scheduled to be held on November 04. Despite his public position of neutrality, he made no secret of his wish to see New Caledonia to remain with France. He made an emotional appeal at the conclusion of his three-day visit to the territory and said, ''France would not be the same without New Caledonia''. His real mission was to defeat the self- determination referendum. Indigenous Kanak people have been agitating for independence for decades. He attended a ceremony marking the massacre of pro-independence Kanaks in 1986. The outcry against that massacre culminated in the pledge to conduct the referendum in 2018. Losing control over New Caledonia would seriously undermine Macron's blueprint for the region of which at least for now Australia has become a strategic partner. Macron's carefully choreographed trip to New Caledonia is a sign of deep anxiety about the outcome of the referendum despite media polls suggesting the referendum is likely to fail.
Muhammad Mahmood is an independent economic and political analyst.