At last good sense has prevailed on North Korean leader Kim Jung Un and US President Trump. The war of words between the two leaders fell short of the decorum of diplomatic discourse. Kim threatened that he has enough nuclear arsenals in his possession to destroy the targets in the United States. Trump responded that he has much superior new nuclear arsenals capable of destroying North Korea. What stunned the people around the globe is the name calling and the acrimonious language the two leaders applied.
Then a period of lull followed. Kim, at the invitation of the Chinese President Xi, travelled to Beijing by train in March. He had three days of visit during which President Xi persuaded his guest to freeze the nuclear programme and resume peace talks with his South Korean counterpart. The series of sanctions clamped on North Korea brought a halt to its international trade. China being the principal trading partner of North Korea could not evade sanctions in one hand and being a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, on the other hand, could not veto sanction in disregard of world public opinion. President Xi nonetheless was able to convince Kim that prudence lies in salvaging the economy and deescalating tension in Korean Peninsula. Kim weighed options and found dividend in freezing tests of long range missiles and talking peace. On April 27, the leaders of North and South Korea met at the de-nuclearised zone.
Both leaders reportedly acted like statesmen, put the tumultuous past behind and discussed the future course of action. Kim proposed normalisation of relations and volunteered to halt nuclear tests and nuclear proliferation. South Korean leader Moon Jai-in emphasised cessation of hostilities, strengthening bi-lateral relations enabling fragmented families to unite across the border and resumption of economic cooperation between North and South Korea.
A group of Republican lawmakers in Washington were quick to congratulate President Trump for brining Kim to negotiating table. They believe that Trump's belligerence and threat to apply nuclear weapons made North Korean leader talk sense. Political observers, however, felt that it was Chinese President Xi's candid discussion that encouraged the secluded leader to return to negotiation with South Korean President. Kim knows best that without Beijing's support, North Korea will find it extremely difficult to sustain its vast well-armed army and feed its 25 million people. President Xi was cognizant that in the event of an armed conflict millions of people in North Korea will be displaced and there will be exodus of displaced population to China - a situation China would like to avoid at any cost. President Xi, however, knows the limitations of his leverage. Last year, Kim executed his uncle and assassinated his half-brother, both were deemed to have close relationship with Chinese leadership.
After the termination of the World War II, the communist world, led by Moscow, and the anti-communist bloc, led by Washington, embroiled into a fierce competition to advance their respective sphere of influence on neighbouring countries. This culminated into a full scale war in Korea in 1952 and later on in Vietnam. Though at the intervention of the United Nations a cease-fire was enforced in 1953 the country was partitioned. Kim IlSong established Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (DPRK) with major chunk of Korean territory having majority population. Nationalists retained about 40 per cent of the territory in the south and set up their own administration. In the absence of peace agreement, both countries remained at logger-heads but South Korea felt insecure. The United States deployed 50,000 well equipped troops to protect South Korea against invasion from the North.
Following the vivisection of Korean Peninsula, the north and south adopted different political and economic trajectory. North Korea embraced one party system with absolute authoritarianism and zero tolerance to dissents. Even after seventy years of existence the governance of the country centers around one family. Kim is the third generation to inherit the administration established by his grandfather. South Korea, on the contrary, adopted multiparty democracy with free economy. It has advanced from an agrarian economy to industrialised economy. North Korea still remains under-developed, impoverished but acquired nuclear arsenals.
Kim and Moon signed a three-page Panmunjom Declaration, named after the village in the demilitarised zone, stating that "South and North Korea reiterated the common goal of complete denuclearisation, a nuclear-free peninsula. They agreed to actively seek support of international community in that endeavour. Bringing an end to unnatural state of armistice and establishing a robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula is a historical mission that must not be delayed any further." Kim, in his press conference, pledged, "We will work to make sure that the agreement bears good results by closely communicating to ensure that the failure to implement North-South Agreements in the past will not be repeated."
Both leaders acquiesced to transform the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War in 1953 into a peace treaty that would officially bring the war to a close. Neither in the Joint Declaration nor in the press conference Kim demanded withdrawal of US troops from the South, which marked a significant shift in the attitude of the North Korean leader.
The two leaders agreed to set up an inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong, inside North Korea. Moon hoped that he would visit Pyongyang this fall. In response, Kim said he would happily travel to South if invited. At one stage, Kim acknowledged that the North's infrastructure is inferior to that of the South. As a fellow Korean he appealed to Moon, highlighting their shared culture, to help solve the problem.
Trump and his advisors would be wrong to presume that Kim has been conjured to negotiate nuclear programme with the United States. In March 2013, in a speech at the Korean Workers Party meeting, Kim vowed to strengthen nuclear capability and also to improve its impoverished economy. Washington ignored it because Kim refused to discuss denuclearisation. In June 2013, the National Defence Committee in a statement said, "The denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula is the behest of our leader and must be carried out…….without fail." It urged high-level talks between the DPRK and the US administration to establish peace and security in the region. In a message issued in July 2016, a DPRK spokesman declared, "The denuclearisation of Korean Peninsula is the behest of the Great Leader Kim IlSong and the steadfast will of our party, army and the people."
Despite the talk of denuclearisation, Pyongyang resumed testing long range missiles and it reached a peak during 2017. Notwithstanding UN sanctions and Trump's bravado, Kim defiantly continued testing missiles. On New Year's Day, Kim announced that although "the nuclear button is on my desk all the time" and that his missiles could target all of America, he now wanted to focus on building a prosperous country. He reached out to Moon and wanted to attend the PyeongChang Olympics to "ease acute military tension" and create a peaceful environment in Korean Peninsula. This marked the dawn of a new chapter of reconciliation in Korea.
Korean leaders reportedly have had candid discussions, understood each other and realised peoples' profound desire for peace. Kim rightly articulated, "given the shared culture only the Koreans could solve their problem". This is a rebuke to involvement of external forces in Korean affairs.
Trump has lavishly praised Kim. Given Trump's impulse, unorthodox gesture and undiplomatic lexicon, the outcome of a summit with Kim cannot be guaranteed. The US' repudiation of Iran Nuclear Agreement notwithstanding, Iran's full compliance has eroded Trump's credibility and called into question his trustworthiness as a peace partner. The officials at the White House should, instead, encourage Tokyo and Seoul to engage in bi-lateral parleys with Pyongyang. That would stand a better chance for peace in the region.
The writer is a former official of the United Nations.
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