The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered the emergence of countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which were under Moscow's subjugation for decades as sovereign entities. People were emancipated from one-party's dictatorial rule and embraced the taste of multi-party system with a degree of political liberty. The European Union (EU) welcomed the newly emancipated countries in its fold and offered generous economic support. Germany got reunited after 45 years and played a pivotal role in shaping the policies of the EU. NATO began expanding enrolling the former Soviet bloc countries. The expansion came to the border of Russian Federation much to the irritation of Moscow. The countries in Central Asia had different experience. Their rulers were changed but the new leadership, owing to lack of experience, soon paved the return of former dictators with different political agenda. They introduced oxymoronic democracy. The United States welcomed them and enabled them to secure economic assistance from multinational capital markets. They aligned towards the United States and EU.
The United States, for about two decades since 1991, reigned supreme as the only super power. Russia was engaged in recuperating from disintegration and paid little attention to reassert its prominence in the Kosovo and Iraq conflicts. Despite having long ethnic and historic relations with the people of Servia, Moscow could not challenge NATO's military intervention in Belgrade. In the Iraq crisis, Moscow's role was ambivalent. France and Germany opposed America's military intervention at the United Nations but could not restrain the United States from invading Iraq.
Russia, under President Putin, began playing an assertive role in the international community. In 2007, Putin visited Riyadh - the first ever visit by a Russian leader to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. During the cold war, Riyadh remained aligned to the United States and used to purchase military hardware from the US almost at regular intervals, though it never engaged itself in any major warfare. Saudi government disapproved "Godless Communism" as a political and economic system but tolerated US support to Israel's occupation of Arab land.
King Faisal persuaded the Arabs to reduce oil production and increase prices as a punitive action against those sympathetic of Israel's occupation. His actions were not appreciated by Washington and its allies but King Faisal scored a reprisal against the friends of common enemy - Israel. His assassination in 1974 deprived the Arab World a statesman who had the acumen to oppose a superpower and its allies in Europe.
Saudi leadership has now realised that it has relied too long and too much on the United States without tangible benefits. Riyadh has also realised that Basher al-Assad can not be removed and Tehran's growing influence in the region, especially in Iraq and Syria, can no longer be contained. It would not be prudent to resist Tehran militarily and containment would only be possible with Moscow exerting diplomatic pressure on Tehran. Riyadh's year-long military intervention in Yemen has not produced a victory and there is no scope of immediate termination of war. All these have troubled the Saudi leadership and led them to make a diplomatic overture. King Salman and the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, along with a large entourage, went to Moscow last week on a three-day visit. This was the first visit of a Saudi King to Russia though Prince Mohammed travelled to Moscow twice in recent past.
The Saudi-Russian energy relationship is part of a larger nexus of mutual interests. They are expected to reach an agreement to cooperate on oil production, probably finalising a $ 1.0 billion fund to invest in energy projects. In the midst of declining oil prices, Saudi Arabia is keen for outside investment. There is also wide support in Saudi Arabia for strengthening political and economic ties with Russia.
President Trump's "America First" doctrine has caused disappointment in the European capitals who since the World War II steadfastly accepted the US leadership in confronting communist threat. Now they have come to realise that the United States can no longer be trusted and they would need to stand on their own. Washington's repudiation of the Paris Climate Agreement, endorsement of Brexit and abrogation of the Trans Pacific Partnership sent a disconcerting signal all over Europe and Asia that new leadership in Washington is not concerned about the turmoil outside its territory. America's withdrawal from providing leadership prompted its former allies to focus on their own defence and security. Germany, therefore, increased its defence budget significantly and others would follow suit. The stalemate in the dialogue to revise North American Free Trade Agreement reinforced the apprehension that the Trump administration has repudiated "collective prosperity" as a principle, dearly nourished since the time of President Roosevelt.
Washington's relation with Tehran is set to take a turn for the worse with Trump announcing that Iran has not been adherent to the nuclear agreement. But former US officials who were involved in crafting the nuclear deal strongly believe that the agreement has been working and Tehran has been in compliance with the deal. Former Secretary of State John Kerry, in a recent article, referred to repeated International Atomic Energy Agency's certification that Tehran has been in compliance of the deal. The Foreign Ministers of Germany, France and Britain told Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that they believe Iran has been adhering to the agreement and they would not support "renegotiation of the agreement." Russia and China have made no indication that they are unhappy with Iran and would demand a renegotiation of the deal. Trump's comment would isolate Washington and escalate tension in the Middle East.
The northern region of Iraq (Kurdish region), in a referendum, has overwhelmingly voted for a separate state, much to the consternation of Baghdad. The neighbouring countries of Turkey, Iran and Syria have dismissed the referendum and vowed to impose trade and economic embargo against the Kurdish regional government. Israel has hailed the outcome of the referendum and lent support to ultimate independence of Kurdish state. Washington has opposed the referendum and voiced its support to territorial integrity of united Iraq. It is very likely that Moscow would not upset Tehran, Damascus and Ankara and will remain opposed to Kurdish independence.
Palestinian Prime Minister has visited Gaza last week and received a warm welcome from Hamas leadership. Earlier, the Hamas dissolved its local administration and agreed to work under President Abbas to realise the just demands of Palestinian population. This reconciliation has been achieved at the mediation of Cairo though Israel characterised the rapprochement as a hostile action against Tele Aviv.
The people of Catalonia have voted in favour of independence from Spain last week. The Madrid government acknowledged the aspirations of the people of Catalina but suggested that the best option for the people of Spain is acceding greater autonomy for the region. The leaders of Catalonia conveyed their willingness to resolve the issue through dialogue. Given the overwhelming support for separation, the independence of Catalina cannot be postponed for too long.
Given the referendum for independence in northern Iraq, the indication of government forces already having an upper hand in Syria and likely abrogation of Iran nuclear deal by the United States would exacerbate the situation in the Middle East. The call for independence in Catalonia has caused anxiety in European capitals. In this situation, while Russia and China have pursued a policy of engagement, the United States opted disengagement. The cost of retreat will be much more than the cost of participation and the next US government will bear the brunt.
The writer is a former official of the United Nations. [email protected]
