It is undeniable that COVID-19 in its fifth month of existence pervaded so fast and killed so many people that scientists and epidemiologists were taken by surprise. Its origin is still shrouded in mystery but what is known and even admitted by the Chinese government that the virus first transmitted into human body in December 2019 and infected many people in the region of Wuhan in China. How many people died of the infection has not been known from credible source. The Chinese government first claimed about three thousand people succumbed to the infection. Later, this was revised to around 4,000. The exact casualties will not be known until the government allows WHO to examine records of the hospitals in Wuhan. As the pandemic started rattling the region, the government responded in authoritarian fashion and quarantined the entire region overnight. It built two hospitals in the affected areas within a week, mobilised hundreds of medical personnel to treat the patients. The other regions were brought under shutdown and the pandemic was brought under control in two months.
In January, the virus began to migrate to neighbouring countries. South Korea, Japan and the Philippines reported infection and imposed severe restriction on the movement of the people. The governments were quick in reactivating the "health care services", conducted mass testing of the people and those suspected of the symptoms were brought to hospitals. The airports and sea ports were equipped with screening machines and arriving passengers were subjected to close scrutiny. It was on January 21, the first covid-19 affected patient was reported in the State of Washington and a week later, he died. The administration was not prepared - the virus infected thousands on the following weeks. By mid-March the virus pervaded all 50 states in the United States. Countries in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa fell prey to the disease almost at the same time. At the end of April, more than 3 million people globally became infected with the virus and about 210,000 people died. In the United States, about one million have fallen sick and more than 55,000 have died at end of April.
Given the enormous death toll, miseries of the people and the devastation of economy wrought by the pandemic, it is only legitimate that the government and people around the globe would like to inquire when the outbreak of the pandemic originated, how many people were infected, and why the Chinese government took weeks to inform World Health Organisation (WHO) and neighbouring governments. Had international community been warned at the outset of the crisis, there could have been well coordinated response to contain the virus. Thousands of lives could have been saved. The Chinese government owes an explanation about the origin of the virus and how it spread so rapidly with compelling and epidemiological evidences to international community.
President Trump has accused the WHO for colluding with Beijing and procrastinating to alert the member countries on the precipitous spread of the virus. Trump characterised WHO as China-centric and decided to withhold the funding for the current year amounting $493 million. His administration is now seeking alternative channels to divert the fund in support of public health programmes in affected countries.
It is worth pointing out that despite Trump's accusation of WHO, the United States has been a dominant voice at the agency. As its biggest donor, the US plays pivotal role in setting programme priorities. More than a dozen US nationals holding very important positions in WHO's headquarters in Geneva continue to take decisive role in the decision-making process. They were on the job when the virus was first detected in China.
In late 2019, Chinese doctors in Wuhan started discussing that a SARS-like ailment was spreading in the hospitals. The authority quickly shut them up and reprimanded them for spreading rumours. It was on December 31 China informed WHO that there was a mysterious pneumonia in Wuhan and many people have fallen sick. On January 5, WHO issued a statement confirming that China had reported 44 cases but there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission or spread among medical personnel.
During the week from January 11 to January 17, Wuhan Health Commission reported that there were no new infections or deaths. WHO might have had reservations about the commission's report but decided not to seek any clarification. The Organisation had noted hiatus in the report and could have made an observation that it was not able to independently verify it. By citing Chinese data, WHO officials lent credibility to information that was not correct.
In the meantime, the virus kept spreading. It was on January 20, Chinese officials confirmed that the virus was spreading person to person. Wuhan was in crisis and confirmed cases were found in multiple towns in China. Japan, South Korea and Thailand reported infection in several cities.
As the situation was getting worse Tedros Ghebreyesus, Director General of WHO made a visit to Beijing and met President XI on January 28. Tedros reportedly "lauded Chinese handling of the pandemic and effectiveness of China's system." Upon his return to Geneva, Tedros remarked about the death of the doctor who alerted colleagues about the virus, "It is very difficult, given the facts, to say that China was hiding."
The UN agencies including WHO operate under different circumstances. The country offices work in close cooperation with the host governments. There is always room for conflict and disagreement on implementing projects. In Eritrea, the UN agencies had worked under extremely difficult situation. Many UN officials including "the agency heads" were declared person-non-grata and were expelled during 2005 to 2010. The situation in Iraq during 2000 to 2003 was not pleasant for the UN agencies either.
It is hard to imagine how much pressure WHO could have exerted on China to reveal more data about the origin of the virus, extent of infections and the death toll. But it should also be noted that by late January, the Chinese officials acknowledged that they should have acted sooner. In an emergency when decisive actions matter most, WHO can raise alarms, but it cannot compel an authoritarian country like China to do much.
Despite its lapses, since January, WHO has been at the centre of global response. It quickly distributed test-materials to more than 70 laboratories worldwide - a test the United States decided not to use. It supplied more than 2 million protective gears items to 74 countries and urged member countries to intensify testing. WHO had a number of achievements in the recent past including eradication of polio, containment of malaria, mass immunisation programmes in conflict zones and monitoring of life-saving drug productions.
On the origin of the virus, Columnist David Ignatius wrote in the Washington Post on April 24 that scientists tend to "conclude that the virus was not created in a laboratory, but a natural organic virus that was enhanced for scientific reasons may have leaked accidentally in Wuhan. The question whether the virus entered humans through an accidental infection of a lab worker can be answered only through forensic investigation. Beijing should launch a forensic investigation by reviewing facilities, samples, records and personnel." This will set the speculations to rest. The international community led by WHO should build up pressure on China to make the investigation.
Regarding economic recovery, economists are not able to make an agreed projection. The US Secretary of Finance appears very optimistic that the economy will revamp around July/August this year. The Chief Economist in the White House doesn't seem that upbeat. He predicts that the recession will be greater than the one happened in 1933 and it will take a year or two to get on the track. The fact remains around 40 million people have lost jobs, 26 million people have sought unemployment benefits, more than half of the country still locked down. Unemployment level has surged from 3.5 per cent in March to 20 per cent in April. The virus has slowed down a bit. The death rate and the rate of new infection in the US have shown a downward trend. The administration prefers to roll back the shutdown gradually depending on the ground situation but with some guidelines to follow. Once the pandemic makes a significant decline, the opportunities for economic activities will gradually expand. The situation in Europe appears better than before. The virus has been contained to a large extent and some countries are opening their economies. Till now, countries in Asia haven't been seriously hit and if they are able to contain the spread of the virus, their economy would rebound at the end of the year. No quick-fix is at hand.
Abdur Rahman Chowdhury is a former official of the United Nations.
darahman.chowdhury@hotmail.com