British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a major setback at the general election held on June 08, 2017. In less than two weeks' time talks began on June 19 over exiting from the European Union (EU). The Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority and expected to form a coalition government with the help of North Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which will give the government a narrow working majority. Prime Minister May is known to be very thorough in getting on the top of any issues that are under consideration. She called the snap election three years earlier than scheduled in the full confidence that she would win the election decisively. There were reasons for her to believe so. She was 20-25 points ahead in the opinion polls, and Labour prospects looked dire. But at the end the Labour party under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn brought down the lead to a very close tie.
An election victory was considered to strengthen May's position in Brexit negotiations and was canvassed that a Conservative win would enable her to go for a what has been termed as a hard break with the EU - the hard Brexit. She always insisted that ''Brexit means Brexit''; there is nothing in between. She was expected to win the election which would have conferred her the mandate to negotiate with EU leaders over the terms of Brexit from a position of strength. Instead, she lost her majority in the parliament which has seriously weakened her negotiatiing position with EU leaders.
Furthermore, that she is entering into an alliance with the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) of Northern Ireland has further added to her problems . The DUP stands for a hard Brexit. And that naturally imply that there would be no special concessions for the very unique situation of Northern Ireland. But at the same time the DUP wants a soft border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. The DUP also wants to maintain close trade relationship with the EU.
These may not be possible in the case of a no deal option (hard Brexit). This (Northern Ireland) is also the only place where Britain will have land border with an EU member country after Brexit. Under a no deal situation this means armed border control which may lead to renewal of strife based on sectarian division. The DUP is wholly against any special deal which could bring Northern Ireland closer to the Irish Republic because such a deal will weaken their own power base.
Theresa May's negotiating position so far has been based on a threat ''no deal is better than a bad deal'. That means she will walk away without a deal if the deal is not favourable to Britain. Such a threatening position has now become untenable and EU leaders know that. She has completely weakened her position and also at risk of falling any moment if the DUP withdraws its support. She will remain susceptible to pressure from this party. Her political alliance with the DUP will only add to her woes as the negotiations progress.
As the UK and the EU are now heading to start negotiations very soon , what are the options Prime Minister May has? The question arises because she did not get the mandate she had asked for to strengthen her position at the negotiation table with the EU. On June 23 last year, only 51.89 per cent voted to leave the EU while 48.11 voted to remain in the EU. It was rather a very close call, but a call, nevertheless, to leave. A hard Brexit will entail leaving the EU without a deal in place and trading with the EU like any other country based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.This also will automatically lead to end of free immigration (free movement rules), the EU court and freedom to enter into trade deals with any country including the EU on its own accord.
The general election killed the hard Brexit option. A majority of the Conservative Party members are now calling for a softer option - a soft Brexit. Many senior Conservative members are advocating for closer links between Britain and the EU. They would like to see Labour and other parties also have a say on the issue. Former Prime Minister David Cameron definitely thinks so, and told the press that he would like May to adopt a ''softer'' Brexit and urged her to talk to Labour and to come to an agreement over the type of Brexit deal Britain should pursue.
Those who wish to maintain closer ties with the EU are delighted and consider the election result as a rejection of the Prime Minister's approach. They are calling for a compromise on the issue.
However, the support for a softer Brexit is definitely gaining ground in the new political climate that is emerging in the wake of the general election. The Conservative Party gained 12 seats in Scotland and its leader Ruth Davidson is asking the Prime Minister to look again at Brexit and to seek cross-party consensus. She further emphasised that trade should be the core of the final deal.
Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Britain could change its mind and would find the door open to come back. It must be remembered that he is a man who never liked the democratic vote on matters like finance. Shortly afterwards, French President Emmanuel Macron echoed the similar sentiment. He, however, further hinted that once Brexit talks start, it would be more difficult to reverse course.
The EU leaders are now speaking from a position of strength and increasingly feeling confident on their negotiation stand on Brexit. There is a hint that if May still pushes for a hard Brexit, she might be taken to cleaner as Greek Prime Minister Tsipras was taken to when he took a strong stand ( based on the electoral mandate) in his negotiations with the EU. We all know what happened there.
Prime Minister May has now only two options open to her: (1) Reverse Article 50 or (2) Negotiate for a soft Brexit.
How would a soft Brexit look like? In summary, a soft Brexit would involve keeping close ties with the EU enabling the UK to access the single market while being able to make deals without the rest the EU. But in return the UK must agree to free movement of goods, services, capital and people. The UK like Norway can become a member of the European Economic Union (EEA) which will ensure near full access to the European single market but with obligations relating to EU legislation in relevant areas and accept free movement of people among others. The irony in this model of association with the EU is that the UK will have to follow all the EU rules and legislations but without being able to shape them which a member country can do. The alternative Swiss model is not much better either for the UK. In essence the UK is unlikely to be able to control immigration and retain increased access to the single market.
Under the circumstances, soft Brexit appears to be the only viable option available to Prime Minister May. The reincarnated 'iron lady' might have to eat her humble pie. But far more serious concern for the UK now appears to be the process of negating Brexit and reorientating the UK-EU relationship for the future. This is likely to dominate everything else for the UK government for years to come given that the country has now begun the negotiations much weaker than before.
The writer is an independent economic and political analyst.
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