Consumers are awfully puzzled. The data that the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the national statistical organization, or the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) disseminates on the consumers' price index (CPI) most of the times do not match with their real-life spending, be it on food or non-food items.
The gap is, obviously, wider in the case of data compiled by the BBS which has both manpower and logistics to conduct widespread and organised survey of the price situation.
The CAB, a rights organization, on the other hand, does neither has manpower nor logistics to make a survey of its own. It remains dependent on others' data as far as the calculation of CPI is concerned.
The fact remains that no organisation other than BBS prepares the CPI or estimates the rate of inflation. So, the sole source of statistics concerning inflation, CPI, wage indices and the like is the BBS. One may have doubts about the quality of the BBS statistics, but, at the end of the day, one does not have any option other than accepting the same.
The CPI in the month of January of 2017 was 234.34 points and it came down to 232.83 in May, the lowest one in 2017. But since June the index started rising and reached its peak in October (245.86). It came down marginally in the penultimate month only to rise again in the final month of the just concluded year.
The main reason for the CPI going up from the middle part of the last year was the record high rice prices. The loss of rice crops due to two consecutive floods coupled with dwindling food stock in government silos were largely responsible for higher rice price. Traditionally, the higher rice prices do have a bearing on the prices of other food and non-food items. Even it impacts the transport fares. Vehicle operators do demand higher fares as compensation for higher rice prices. The prices of vegetables a couple of months back had reached a record high level. Never before vegetables were so pricey during peak winter season.
The prices of rice declined marginally following the harvest of aman rice. But the phenomenon was short-lived. The main staple again became costlier within days and it is still sticking to the record price tag. Market insiders say the rice prices would maintain high levels as the government itself has fixed the rice procurement rate at a high level -Tk 39 a kilogram (kg).
Some people tend to argue that because of the hike in the per capita income, the increase in prices of rice or any other essential item should not be a problem. But their contention has recently been proved false by the finding of a research entity called SANEM (South Asian Network on Economic Modelling). According to the SANEM estimate, more than 520,000 people have fallen into poverty trap again due to the recent hike in rice prices. Many poor and low income families are finding it difficult to meet daily expenses or manage a paltry savings due to the high cost of living.
Many private think tanks and the multilateral organisations do very often question the quality of BBS statistics. They might have valid grounds for being suspicious about the authenticity of government data. But there should be some independent sources of a few basic data that concern welfare of the people. The think tanks and the donor agencies do need to make joint efforts to that end.
