The new Gregorian calendar year is showing some signs of a new geopolitical equation to deal with the American-backed Afghan civil war and the six-year-long Syrian crisis which have defied solution until now.Â
While the ceasefire in Syrian civil war brokered jointly by Turkey and Russia was unanimously supported by a UN Security Council resolution on December 31, 2016, earlier on December 27, Russia, China and Pakistan at a meeting in Moscow agreed to work with the Taliban as a strategy against the ISIS in Afghanistan. Kabul was not represented in the meeting, but meeting sources confirmed that Afghanistan would obviously be included in the group.
In Syria, the nation-wide truce temporarily enforced between the Assad regime and non-jihadist rebels (supported by the US-led West and Turkey) is to be finalised at a peace talk later this month in Kazakhstan's capital Astana orchestrated by Assad supporters Russia and Iran and rebel-backer Turkey. Since the UN has already welcomed and supported "the efforts by Russia and Turkey to end violence in Syria and jumpstart a political process," and hailed the planned talks in Astana as "an important step," it is expected to be attended by other Western players as well.
Meanwhile, the Moscow meeting on Afghan situation discussed the deteriorating security situation there and indicated that the group is to be expanded with Afghanistan and Iran. Â Statement issued at the end of the meeting said: "The Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China as the UN Security Council permanent members confirmed their flexible approach to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and Taliban."
However, the new situation complicated by the entry of ISIS into Afghanistan prompting the development of a new axis between Russia, China and Pakistan created a serious problem for India. Iran too is becoming active in the group. In fact, Russian analyst Nandan Unnikrishnan at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation said: "In the present context of limited communication between India and Russia, Russia's actions could lead to drift in relations." India only recently had reaffirmed its ties with Russia by announcing almost $10 billion in defence purchase from Moscow.
DIVERGENCE OF INDIA'S INTEREST FROM RUSSIA & IRAN: This new development concerning Afghan situation has put India in a difficult situation. Actually, during 1996-2001, India closely collaborated with Russia and Iran in Afghanistan in support of the Northern Alliance to prevent complete takeover of the country by the Taliban. Subsequently, the three, by and large, coordinated with each other in their actions against the Taliban. The ISIS foray into Afghanistan lately seems to have changed all that - and for good reasons.
Russian President's special representative to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov caused a sensation in India sometime last year when he formally announced that the ISIS is now a bigger threat to the region than Taliban. Iran also had been making similar noises to the chagrin of Afghan government prompting former Afghan intelligence chief Rahmatullah Nabil to accuse Tehran last November of supporting Taliban to counter the Daesh (Isis) threat. So this was not a sudden development and those involved in the game knew what was coming.
There indeed is a divergence. Russia has become convinced - partly from its deep involvement in supporting the Assad regime in Syria and the problem it is facing from the Muslim extremists in parts of Russia itself - that the Isis poses a global threat while the Taliban is a localised Afghan phenomenon. Iran too agrees with this assessment as it feels threatened by Isis not only in Iraq but in its own land and decided to join the Russian initiative. Tehran also is concerned about the sizeable Shiite community in Afghanistan as well who will become the obvious target of the Sunni ISIS.
India, however, does not see it this way. Indian perception, according to Takshashila Institution, a centre for research and education in public policy, is based on understanding that the Isis in Afghanistan is made up of "rump factions of the Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban and assorted drug and crime syndicates, all with markedly anti-Pakistan orientation and with no global aspirations." Besides, Anand Arni and Pranay Kotasthane of the Takshila Institution's geo-strategy programme further added: "India is far more comfortably placed than Russia and Iran in this regard because of the buffer that is provided, paradoxically, by Pakistan."
CHINA-PAKISTAN'S INCLUSION MAY FURTHER COMPLICATE: In the absence of a clear game plan from the new US administration and President-elect Donald Trump's contradictory statements on the Middle East, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan have also created some problems for India, Narendra Modi's claim of friendship with Trump notwithstanding. New Delhi is clear that without active support from the US in Afghan imbroglio, it wouldn't be tenable for the country to continue playing a meaningful role on its own after breaking out of its former alliance partners in Afghanistan.
While India still appears willing to continue to back the Afghan National Unity Government (NUG) against the Taliban, it has reasons to worry in case the ISIS through its contacts within Pakistan becomes interested in expanding its tentacles into the troubled Kashmir state where the majority Muslim population are agitating against the government for decades. Â In this context, Anand Arni and Pranay Kotasthane pointed out that a 'global threat' perception "would be used by Pakistan to create a new narrative, a new set of friends and to secure more funding." And this is a major concern for India.
Reports from India tend to highlight serious anxiety in New Delhi's strategic decision-making process. It fully understands that the proposed Russian-Iranian initiative to talk to the Taliban would, willy-nilly, involve Pakistan and in this case perhaps with a far greater say and role in shaping the future of the region. This is an anathema to India and in fact, simply an unacceptable proposition. It believes the focus on the Taliban would 'bail out' Pakistan "which is internationally questioned for abetting terrorism."
What India will try to do to obviate this unforeseen problem is difficult to guess at this point of time. In the changing geopolitical scenario, new equations are being developed and strategies conceived not necessarily to the liking of all. However, if any country's own perception and strategic planning comes into clash with such changes, it needs deep and clear-cut thinking to adjust or avoid cataclysm.
 sayed.kamaluddin@gmail.com
Â
Afghan imbroglio: Russia-China-Pakistan axis, India dithers
Sayed Kamaluddin | Published: January 10, 2017 19:21:50 | Updated: October 22, 2017 16:31:55
Afghan imbroglio: Russia-China-Pakistan axis, India dithers
Share if you like