American President-elect Donald Trump has literally trumped the global mainstream media by getting elected. Political leaders of all hues the world over were also crestfallen. Meanwhile, the same mainstream world media is awash with speculations about what the 'unpredictable' president-elect is likely or unlikely to do. Would he 'walk the talk' and be a diehard protectionist and build a wall along US-Mexico border and impose additional 35 per cent tax on imports from Mexico and 45 per cent on imports from China? All are keeping their fingers crossed. This is because America matters to the world - for better or worse.
During the just-concluded tempestuous, no-holds-barred, long presidential election campaign in the US, unheard-of words were uttered and unthinkable personal acrimonies bared their fangs to the amazement of those who cared to attend the meetings or watched live TV coverage.
What is, however, most interesting is that the majority of the people had faith in the exit poll on the US presidential election which suggested 65 per cent of the voters didn't think Trump was competent to be the US President.
Trump's anti-Muslim rhetoric obviously caused widespread resentment amongst the Muslims everywhere and actually betrayed his racism. However, different people react differently. An Arab commentator Omar Kamel has said: "I'm Arab and many of us glad that Trump won. It's not that we see anything differently. Trump is an egotistical racist misogynist who, in a rational world, shouldn't be in any position of power. Then again, neither should Hillary Clinton."
Europe was rattled by Trump's pre-election comments on NATO. European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said after the election that Trump had called Nato into question, which could have "harmful consequences" because it is the model of Europe's defence. European Council chief Donald Tusk, referring to Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again," told newsmen in Brussels: "I do not believe that any country today can be great on isolation." Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned Trump that "going it alone" is not an option for Europe or the United States.
TRUMP'S TRADE WAR WITH CHINA: China's official publication the Global Times reported a day after the American election that the "Chinese observers are cautiously optimistic about Sino-US relations" under the Trump administration. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kong said that China expects to make joint efforts with the new US government to "maintain the sustained, healthy and stable China-US relations" and "benefit the people of both countries and the world."
The New York Times Correspondent in Shanghai Keith Bradsher pointed out that during his campaign, Donald Trump blisteringly attacked China and said "we already have a trade war" and that "we already have the power over China, economic power." However, US Ambassador in Beijing Max Baucus announced in Beijing after the election that "the election result will not heavily impact Sino-US relations because the two countries are so intertwined."
Will Trump build the wall on Mexico border and impose 35 per cent duty on Mexican and 45 per cent on Chinese goods? All indications suggest that he is rethinking about his campaign rhetoric but said nothing clearly. So people are confused.
However, one thing is sure, US-China trade is largely protected by the latter's membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and unilateral action would be extremely difficult to implement. Both past US presidents George Bush and Bill Clinton had agreed to China's WTO membership.
A Wall Street Executive Steven Rattner, writing in the New York Times (NYT) commented that Trump's tariffs would raise prices of imported goods sharply cutting the purchasing power of all Americans - hurting the lower income groups most. NYT's Keith Bradsher reports from Shanghai that China too, being the largest market for commercial aircraft, can retaliate by targeting Boeing. Besides, it can "wreck havoc on the vast, yet delicate supply chain behind a wide range of products like iPhones and auto parts.
A Financial Time's (FT) post-poll report suggested that last year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognised renminbi as a reserve currency with the concurrence of US President Obama, and now if the Trump administration makes any attempt to formally brand China as a "currency manipulator" - as Trump repeatedly mentioned during the campaign - his government would be globally isolated.
On the question of Trump's imposition of tariff, trade restrictions and job creation, a recent study by the American non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that 'rather than bringing jobs back to the United States, Mr. Trump's tariffs could result in a trade war that would cost our economy five million jobs and possibly lead to recession.'
Trump may learn from Barack Obama's experience. Soon after his election, using his power, he imposed 35 per cent tariff on Chinese tyres which prompted China to impose high tariffs on American chicken meat and automotive products. Both went to WTO and suffered. The lesson made Obama cautious on imposing trade restrictions.
A Global Times commentary said: "The election will have a long-term impact on the US, as well as the world. But China is one of the quickest countries to adapt. China is able to cope with the leadership change of the US." A FT report pointed out that Chinese leaders have a phrase to deal with any uncertainty. They call it "crossing the river by feeling for the stones" as opposed to plunging headfirst into the rapids.
OBAMACARE, IMMIGRATION & TAX CUTS: Health policy in the US is a very sensitive issue and if Affordable Care Act (AFC), popularly known as Obamacare, is scrapped as Trump promised, it could end free or subsidised coverage that 20 million Americans now enjoy. Those people would be facing higher costs or loss of medical coverage. However, Trmp has later shifted from this stand and said that part of it could survive.
Another most important issue for Trump's campaign was immigration and he has repeatedly vowed to 'stricter standards', deportation of millions of undocumented workers, prevent Muslim immigrant and of course, build a wall along Mexican border. It is well known and scores of commentators have pointedly mentioned that undocumented immigrant workers play a very important role in the American economy, doing jobs that most native-born Americans won't do and also paying tax. Many mayors of major US cities like New York, San Francisco, Florida and Chicago have assured migrants that "they are in safe place". This is helpful, but didn't quite relieve the affected people of their anxiety.
On Trump's tax cut policy, Rattner commented: "The centre-piece of Mr. Trump's plan is a huge $5.8 trillion tax cut unaccompanied by specificity around what expenses would be cut to pay for it. (Indeed, the president-elect has proposed more spending on defence and infrastructure)." However, according to the Tax Policy Centre, by 2025, 51 per cent of Mr. Trump's reductions would go to the top one per cent, who least need it and less likely to spend it.
If Trump sticks to his guns, the wealthy vested interest groups would gleefully try to remove all regulations and concerned agencies with his help to maximise their profits. Environmental Protection Agency will come under attack and the large financial institutions will try to repeal Dodd-Frank regulatory provisions that oversee their activities. There will be a chaos, albeit a managed one, and will widen the economic disparity further.
Amid the looming uncertainties everywhere, Rattner concluded: "This much is certain: Mr. Trump's proposals would confer vast monetary gains on wealthy Americans while leaving middle - and working class - his electoral base - further behind. For his supporters, the irony of a Trump victory is that they may end up even less well-off."
This is exactly what the unsuccessful Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders had been trying to tell the electorate and became quite successful in drawing their attention. But he was an anti-establishment candidate; and the powerful pro-establishment and pro-big business groups in the Democratic Party backed Hillary Clinton.
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