A large segment of potential labour force of Bangladesh remains unutilised or underutilised as nearly one-third of its youths are either unemployed or underemployed.
The situation is worse in case of female youths than their male counterparts, in spite of their educational achievement. But the youths, aged between 15 and 29, who constitute over one-fourth of the total population, can be made into assets for the country if they are educated and trained well.
It is thus evident that addressing unemployment still remains a daunting task for the government. The country has failed to create adequate jobs despite higher economic growth in recent years. The economy registered a modest growth of 7.0 per cent in the last fiscal year.
The growth was, in fact, largely supported by the pay hike of public employees, after maintaining more than 6.0 per cent growth in the past decade. But the truth is the economic growth -- particularly since 2013 -- could not result in enough job creation. The number of jobs rose during 2002-2013, by 0.14 million per year. But the number has fallen to only 0.3 million a year since 2013, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) survey.
It is now certain that the GDP growth that does not ensure enough job creation largely benefit the greater section of the society. Although the growth rises, private investment has declined considerably over the years. The rate of productivity has also declined although various factors such as inflation, bank interest rate on loans, balance of payments position and exchange rates remain favourable for economic growth, according to a study.
Since the early 2000s, the country's economic performance was rather impressive. It was due to the strong growth in labour force up to 2013. But such trend is currently showing signs of stagnation. In light of impressive GDP growth recently, sluggish labour market growth and an emerging demographic dividend create causes of concern. But if equipped with the knowledge, skills and opportunities to take leadership at the individual, household, community and national levels, the young people of today could spearhead unprecedented, inclusive and sustainable development.
According to the World Population Prospects, the youth population of Bangladesh (the then East Pakistan) was 24.8 per cent in 1970, 28.4 per cent in 1990 and 28.7 per cent in 2015. However, the proportion of youths will go down to 18.1 per cent in 2055, according to the United Nations Family Planning Association's (UNFPA) projection.
The unemployment problem can, however, be addressed through investment in public-private partnership (PPP) projects and in collaboration with prospective employers, who generate demand. Such investment in skills training can be made targeting young people who aspire to get jobs overseas.
According to a recent World Bank study, Bangladesh government should move to formulate a national employment strategy to address the problem of slow job growth despite ongoing economic expansion. Such a strategy should aim at increasing the pace of formal job creation, raising the quality of jobs in both formal and informal sectors as well as connecting vulnerable groups to jobs, the study says.
The need for developing an employment strategy for the country deserves high priority. It has to be based on empirical studies, drawing on existing policies, programmes and strategies as well as extensive consultations. This strategy can be centrally coordinated by the Ministry of Planning in close coordination with Ministry of Labour and other key ministries while the World Bank and International Labour Organisation can also support this initiative.
The strategy can act as a framework defining key policy objectives and policies while it should be actionable with clear and measurable indicators or roles and rules of the institutions. It should be developed through necessary consultations by early next year if the government starts working on developing this framework from now on, WB lead economist told a recent meeting.
Analysts blame the country's education system for growing unemployment within the educated portion of the youths. The gradual advancement of Artificial Intelligence in the developed world could mean that there could be a similar technological leapfrogging in Bangladesh in the coming decades which could pose a challenge for the local labour force.
All said and done, there is no substitute to manufacturing-led growth for job creation. There is a need for both domestic investment as well as foreign investment for steady investment flow and job creation in the country.
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