One of the most horrendous civil wars that killed over 400,000 people in Syria now seems to be receding. ISIS (Islamic State) is on retreat and the rebels appear to have become exhausted. Since the civil war began in 2011, around six million people left the country and took shelter in neighbouring countries. About 350,000 refugees risked their lives and reached Europe through a most dangerous journey. Among them, Canada accepted 25,000 and UK promised to take 20,000. The remaining over 300,000 received temporary residentship in Germany.
Once normalcy is restored, millions of refugees who camped in neighbouring countries would be retuning home, and will be exposed to a situation they never thought of in their wildest imagination - homes destroyed, schools and hospitals bombed and roads and bridges ruined. They will find uncertainty about their livelihoods. Nonetheless, they would be eager to return home and begin a new chapter in their lives. The international community, hopefully, will do its best to facilitate the returnees in adapting to the changed situation.
The question now is: what triggered the civil war and who played what role during the past six years? What has been achieved? Of course, Assad regime will blame the dissident groups for resorting to armed revolution against a legitimate government, while the opposition will attribute President Assad's brutal action in response to the demand for pluralism in the country. The debate will turn intractable should the roles played by external forces are added to the narrative.
The Arab spring in 2011 resulted in the ousting of the Tunisian dictator, and the following year Hosne Mubarak was dislodged in Egypt. These two successful uprisings emboldened the youth in Syria asking for a change. Their peaceful demonstration was met with bullets. As time wore on, demonstrators turned more violent and Syrian military became increasingly brutal and reprehensive. The western countries led by the United States lent support to the dissidents without examining the depth of the anti-government resentment. The dissidents sought weapons and foreign powers equipped them hoping for a quick outcome. The regime in its attempt to uproot the dissidents ruthlessly persecuted the civilians. People in thousands left the country seeking safety. The exodus assumed a historic proportion and the neighbouring countries mounted pressure on Assad regime to negotiate with the opposition.
In the meantime, ISIS emerged and occupied a vast territory in Iraq and Syria. The emergence of ISIS added a new dimension to the civil war. They were neither secular nor aligned to either Assad regime or the rebels fighting against Syrian army. ISIS persecution of the dissidents and minorities including the Christians and the Yazidis shocked the people around the globe. The US-led coalition, expanded to include Saudi Arabia and UAE, launched air strikes against ISIS positions but retracted leaving the Kurdish Peshmerga to fight the outfit on the ground. Turkey favoured neutralising ISIS but did not want the Kurds to get an upper hand in the battle lest it would involve Turkish Kurds to fight against Ankara. The United States wanted the Kurds to succeed but would not upset Turkey by arming the Kurds beyond certain limit. This ambiguity complicated the US strategy and Obama administration faltered in restraining Assad regime against using chemical weapons.
Russia, watching so long from the sideline, seized the vacuum resulting from US inaction and dispatched troops in aid to the beleaguered Assad in September 2015. Iranian militia was already battling ISIS and anti-Assad forces with mixed results. Russian armed intervention transformed the warfare dramatically in favour of the Syrian army. Russian army, from its base in Tartus, provided the much needed air cover to Syrian military and Iranian ground troops. ISIS retreated from Raqa and the rebels were pushed to southern border along Jordan and in pockets on the north.
Obama administration fervently tried to set up "no fly zone" to provide protection to the rebels but Russia did not acquiesce. Then it tried to arrange cease-fire on the excuse to allow humanitarian assistance to reach the people under seize. But Russia did not seem interested. Obama, in his final days in office, made desperate attempts seeking an alternative strategy to contain Russian armed intervention in Syria but with little success. By the time Trump took office, Russian army had established its foothold in Syria. Syrian army, backed by Russian troops, began clearing the areas and restored some semblance of civilian rule.
President Assad made an unannounced visit to Moscow on November 21 last year to secure his role in future political settlement. Putin reportedly told Assad that "the war in Syria is as good as over and the main task now is to launch political process." Later, Putin courted Turkish President Erdogan and Iranian President Rouhani and discussed eventual political resolution of the conflict which would demand withdrawal of foreign troops from Syria. Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov clarified that "Russia and Iran, unlike the United States, are in Syria at the invitation of its government" and they would stay as long as necessary. President Rouhani said that the groundwork for a political settlement in Syria has been laid and President Erdogan claimed "a consensus for an inclusive, free, fair and transparent political process has been reached." Washington doesn't see a role in the post conflict peace plan. Putin outsmarted both Obama and Trump.
Putin displayed his growing diplomatic clout with a lightning tour in the Middle East in mid-December to strengthen bilateral ties with Egypt, Jordan and Turkey before making a surprise visit to the Syrian air base at Khmeimim. He presided over the signing of $21 billion investment to build a nuclear power plant in Egypt. Putin also signed agreements to construct nuclear power plants in Turkey and Jordan. In Syria, Putin instructed his Defence Minister to commence drawdown of Russian troops. But he assured that the air base at Khmeimim and the naval base at Tartus would remain operational and promised further strikes "if terrorists raise their heads again". His tour intended to shore up bilateral ties in the Middle East comes at a time when Trump reiterated disengagement from multilateral agreements on absurd grounds and threatened to slash funding to organisations critical of US policy.
Trump, after being humiliated in Syria and isolated on Jerusalem issue, might demand a territory in the south-west for the rebels and their tribes. His administration would argue that given the lack of trust between the Syrian army and the rebels following the bloody war, partition of Syria would settle the rebels without fear of being persecuted by former enemies. This would also enable Damascus to rebuild the country without worrying about the rebels. Syria and her neighbours, especially Turkey, Jordan and Iraq should firmly reject such proposition as it would provide a foothold for the super-powers and their proxies to destabilise the region in future.
Moscow following consultations with Tehran, Ankara and Damascus announced peace talks to be held in the Russian city of Sochi from January 29-30 but the opposition groups have turned down the invitation. The groups in a statement alleged "Russia has not contributed to alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people and it has not pressured the regime to move an inch toward a resolution." The fate of Assad has been the main contention in previous talks. The opposition has called for a transitional government in which Assad would have no role. No wonder, Syrian government rejected the proposal outright.
Peace in Syria will remain elusive until Moscow takes a balanced position on the role of Assad whose inflexibility triggered the unrest in the first place. Assad's exit would auger well for himself as well as for Syria that desperately needs new leadership. Ironically, Syria will now undergo an era of subjugation where decisions pivotal to Syria will be made in Kremlin. Assad's most recent parley with Putin in Moscow marks the beginning of the era of subjugation.
The writer is a former official of the United Nations.
