ON Tuesday November 8 the Americans will cast their votes to elect the next president of the United States. But the votes of residents in only a few states would likely to be the ones that would make the difference. Under the Electoral College system it is the candidate who wins the most electoral votes not necessarily the popular votes wins. Electoral votes are divided between states based mainly on population. If a candidate gets more than half the votes in a state he/she gets all of its electors.
Thanks to public opinion surveys and historical election data we already have a good idea about who would win in more states. The states which are most certain to vote for Democrats are Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Delaware. And the states which are certain to vote for the Republicans are Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Indiana, Montana, Wyoming, Texas, South Dakota North Dakota, Nebraka, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Louisiana, Â Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Idaho. So before anyone even casts a ballot it is probably safe to assume that Clinton would get at least 217 electoral votes and Trump 191.The remaining states are considered battleground states.Â
The states that are often too close to call before or ahead of the election are Florida, Nevada, Colorado, lowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennyslvania, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire. According to the pole averages as of the first week of August, Clinton leads in every one of theses 10 states by varying margins. The states where she leads by more than five points are Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Virginia. Winning in these states would bring Clinton 273 electoral votes which would already mean that the game is over for Trump. But is there any possible way for Trump to win the election? Well let us assume that he wins in the five swing states where he is within three points of Clinton. They are Nevada Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. This would bring him to 265 electoral votes meaning that he will need at least one additional state to win the election. His best bet is probably Pennsylvania although no Republican has ever won in this state since 1988. Its western half has become progressively more red (Increase in Republican voters) in the last few elections. The rural areas of the state are home to many members of Trump base mainly white working class men without university degrees. Winning there would give Trump a grand total of 285 electoral votes. But it is worth pointing out that Clinton's lead has increased in the last few polls in Pennsylvania. And that lead widens a bit further when third party candidates are included. Trump's chances of hitting the oval office appear remote. But what we have learnt from this election cycle is that anything can happen. So let us wait and see what happens on 8th November.
Mashrur Ahmed Zidane
Student
Â
Is Hilary Clinton already a clear winner?
FE Team | Published: October 30, 2016 21:17:28 | Updated: October 22, 2017 16:28:20
Is Hilary Clinton already a clear winner?
Share if you like