It is commonly believed that economically Bangladesh has done well. Over the last two decades most economic indices show improvement, be it in export, remittance, gross domestic product (GDP), infrastructure (though much remains to be done), external relations, regional connectivity, and semblance of political stability.
GDP per capita in Bangladesh was last recorded at US$ 3319.40 in 2016, when adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). The figure averaged US$ 1985.74 from 1990 until 2016 - a record low of US$ 1287.90 in 1990 and an all-time high of US$ 3319.40 in 1990.
On the one hand, British analyst Anatol Lieven had a decade back termed Bangladesh a fragile state. On the other hand, Nasim Nicholas Taleb (The Black Swan, 2007 - described by Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books published since Second World War) and Gregory Traverton (Foreign Affairs-Jan/Feb 2015) posit that for countries, fragility has five principal sources: a centralised governing system, an undiversified economy, excessive debt and leverage, a lack of political variability, and no history of surviving past shocks. For Bangladesh these factors were absent.
Perhaps one of the reasons Anatol Lieven emphasised on 'fragility' was Bangladesh's vulnerability to the effects of climate change. He argued that in the event of surge in water level uncontrollable number of refugees will overwhelm regional states like India, and even possibly the West. Given the fact that Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority country, its people apparently are globally unwelcome at the moment due to the war on terror waged by the West and terrorism waged by Islamic terrorists wanting to take the Muslim community back from modernity to the "pristine" Arabian culture of the 6th century. The terrorists of different hue have been described by journalist Christopher Hitchens as "Islamo-fascist" and by historian Niall Ferguson as "Islamo-Bolshevists" committed to revolution and reordering the world in a way that would undo modernism.
Referring to hostility born of religious conflict in the contemporary world, American political scientist and author Francis Fukuyama has observed that the conflict has taken the shape of violence and intolerance. "In a world of overlapping and plural religious environments", he says "this can clearly be the case. But they fail to put religion in its broader historical context, where it was a critical factor in permitting broad social cooperation that transcended kin and friends as a source of social relationships." (The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution).
However, Anatol Lieven is not alone in making dystopian prediction about Bangladesh. According to Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2015, this country is at most risk in terms of climate change vulnerability. It faces total losses of about 3-4 per cent of GDP due to climate change. Projections see negative trends as crop production is potentially set to decline for at least one crop in each region of the country. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Bangladesh will become one of the worst-affected South Asian nations due to global warming and increase of green house gas (GHG) in atmosphere. With rising sea levels, extreme heat, and more intense cyclones threatening food production, livelihoods and infrastructure, the warming climate will also slow the country's growth and poverty alleviation initiatives. The IPCC report added that as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Bangladesh is at risk of facing food insecurity, severe illness, and increase in mortality and morbidity, loss of rural livelihood and loss of marine and coastal ecosystem. The country is also set to face scarcity of fresh water, rise in temperature, severe winter, rise in sea level, rapid increase of urban population. Naomi Klein in her controversial book, This Changes Everything: Capitalism VS Climate Change, suggested "degrowth" for the developed economies to allow the developing countries innocent of contribution to CO2 in the atmosphere to catch up with the developed world. Such a notion, despite Paris Agreement on Climate Change now abandoned by President Donald Trump, would not be politically saleable to the electorate in the Western World.
For us, climate change is predicted to reduce rice production, our main crop, and increase the country's reliance on other crops and imported food grains. Crop production is potentially set to decline for at least one crop in each region. This simulated variability is projected to cost the agriculture sector US$26 billion in lost agricultural GDP during the 2005-50 period.
The World Bank, however, looks at Bangladesh in a more optimistic view. While the population growth rate has declined, the workforce is growing rapidly. This can be turned into a significant demographic dividend in the coming years, if more and better jobs can be created for the growing number of job-seekers.
Bangladesh aspires to be a middle-income country by 2021. This will require increasing GDP growth to 7.5 to 8.0 per cent per year based on accelerated export and remittance growth. Both public and private investment will need to increase as well. Growth will also need to be more inclusive through creation of productive employment opportunities in the domestic economy. To sustain accelerated and inclusive growth, Bangladesh will need to manage the urbanisation process more effectively, as well as prepare for adaptation to climate change impacts.
Going back to Anatol Lieven's contested description of Bangladesh as a "fragile state" we can take heart from Francis Fukuyama's words "What Asia's postwar economic miracle demonstrates is that capitalism is a path toward economic development that is potentially available to all countries. No underdeveloped country in the Third World is disadvantaged simply because it began the growth process later than Europe, nor is the established industrial powers capable of blocking the development of a latecomer, provided that country plays by the rules of economic liberalism." (The End of History and the Last Man).
Challenges are many. But with determination and cooperation of the global community Bangladesh, already mentioned as a model of development, can traverse a long way.
The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary, Government of Bangladesh.
