Hydrogen combines with oxygen releasing energy and producing water-no emission. This very simple equation has evolved over the last close to 150 years creating significant policy dilemma-risking trillions of dollars in investment. The uncertainty hangs around whether we should go for battery or hydrogen fuel-cell powered electric vehicles.
The dilemma is around three key variables: cost of refueling infrastructure, range of driving with single refueling, and time to refuel. Despite simplicity of these variables, wrong decision in selecting one of these two competing technologies may cost trillions of dollars of non-productive investment, in refueling infrastructure alone. Several critical questions deserve investigation to derive answers with prudent awareness of future possibilities. When will these vehicle powering technologies really take off? Which one will become mainstream - EVs (electric vehicles) or FCVs (fuel-cell vehicles? These questions should be intelligently answered to maximise benefit from emerging technologies, and most importantly, to avoid wasteful investment for choosing the wrong one.
The battery powered electric vehicle is comparatively simpler to make and also to charge. Many electric vehicle owners may be content with overnight plugging into their regular home 120V or 240V outlet using Level 1 equipment that is included with the vehicle. Overnight charging with this slowest charging equipment provides the range just around 40km. But for speedy charging, like Level 2 speed, a typical installation will cost a little over $1,000. Drivers can add 10-25 miles of range in an hour of charging using this Level 2 station. For DC Fast Charging, some refer to this option as the Level 3 speed, the charger is a gas pump-sized machine. Such fast chargers deliver about 80 per cent charge in 30 minutes. But their current cost is an order of magnitude higher than a Level 2 charger, costing $100,000-300,000 per station. Cost of such charging station appears to be a significant barrier for electric vehicles to overcome. According to Bloomberg, as reported by the MIT Technology Review, it's estimated that the world will need to spend a dizzying $2.7 trillion on charging infrastructure alone, if it is to support 500 million electric vehicles.
As electric vehicles are clean alternative to offer us relief from deadly air pollution, and also more efficient than gasoline powered vehicles, such cost of infrastructure could have been justified. But the hydrogen powered fuel-cell innovation to power vehicles, instead of battery, has created uncertainty. As opposed to hours, or 30 minutes in supper fast charging stations for electric vehicles to get charged, hydrogen powered vehicles need just 3 minutes to fill a 5-litter tank. Moreover, single refueling offers double the range of driving than fully charged electric vehicles. For example, as opposed to cruising distance for electric vehicles (EVs) of around 400 km, Toyota's fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) can go about 750 km. But the infrastructure need for pouring hydrogen in vehicle's tank is enormously high.
The biggest impediments to widespread take-up of hydrogen-powered cars are the sheer logistics and expense of building the refueling infrastructure for everyday use. Toyota estimates that it costs up to $2.3 million to build a medium-sized retail refueling station in Europe or US. In an effort of boosting sales of hydrogen cars, Japan is engaged in a drastic rewriting of the rules to reduce regulatory requirement in building and operating hydrogen refueling stations. To accelerate the penetration of hydrogen powered vehicles reaching 40,000 fuel-cell vehicles on the road by 2020, Japan's goal is to increase the number of refueling stations from about 80 in 2016 to 160 by 2020 and 900 by 2030.
Both battery and fuel-cell have a long history. For producing electricity by mixing hydrogen and oxygen, fuel-cell invention by Sir William Robert Grove in 1839 has been going through a long journey to be the widespread commercial innovation--thanks to corporate Japan's bet on hydrogen power commercial vehicles. Similar to the role of defence?? and space programmes in nurturing high potential technologies, NASA's (National Aeronautic and Space Administration of America) role in full-cell is laudable. NASA funded more than 200 research contracts exploring fuel-cell technology, bringing the technology to a level now viable for civilian innovations. Fuel cell powered first bus was completed in 1993, and several fuel-cell cars are now being built in Japan, Europe and in the United States. Daimler-Benz and Toyota launched prototype fuel-cell powered cars in 1997.
Basically, major Japanese automakers like Toyota and Honda are betting hydrogen powered fuel-cell vehicles. Korean major car-maker Hyundai has also joined this bet. It's being predicted that most automakers will probably start mass-producing FCVs after 2025, whereas EV's will already be becoming popular by around 2025. It is being reported that Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo said in October 2017 that he thinks EVs will proliferate faster in the near term, and Hyundai Executive Vice President Lee Kwang-guk said in August that EVs will now be the "mainstay" of the South Korean automaker's eco-car lineup. All these three auto giants have fuel-cell vehicles on the road, and they are betting that despite near term popularity of EVs and the greater complexity and cost of the hydrogen technology, its superior energy density compared with batteries will ultimately give it a decisive advantage in range. Along with the high cost of refueling infrastructure, the cost of individual cars should also come down. Toyota's Mirai, a four-door family sedan powered by hydrogen tanks and fuel-cell technology, sells at $57,500. This flagship FCV has yet to break the 5,000 mark in sales, compared to some 300,000 of Nissan Motor Co.'s battery-electric Leaf.???
Among developing nations, Indian government has taken the decision to prepare the nation for electric vehicles. Indian government is set to put in place liberal rules for charging stations to power electric vehicles, seeking to facilitate rapid expansion of the infrastructure needed to support its ambition of an all-electric fleet (EVs) on Indian roads by 2030. Similarly, China is rapidly progressing for mass adoption of battery powered electric vehicles. The world's biggest car market nearly doubled the number of charging points last year to 215,000, while the number of hydrogen stations is basically insignificant: Just 5.
Both of these technologies have unique advantages. But, in which direction the market will tip is not clear yet. Will there be a clear winner in near future saving the world from wasteful investment? Nobody really knows. Like the past technology battle between Betamax and VHS (Video Home System), we are again caught in the dilemma. But, unlike the past, the cost of wrong decision in developing the infrastructure whether for charging batteries or refueling hydrogen fuel-cells to power next generation vehicles will be enormously high.
M Rokonuzzaman Ph.D is academic, researcher and activist on technology, innovation and policy.
