Bangladesh faces a dilemma over how to tackle the latest influx of Rohingyas from neighbouring Myanmar. It has allowed nearly 600,000 Rohingyas to enter its land on humanitarian grounds. Now it has started counting the cost --economic, social and environmental. The cost seems to be too heavy to bear.
As of now, external assistance, though in limited quantities, is pouring in for arranging food, shelter and medical aid for the newly arrived Rohingyas. The UN Human Rights Commission (UNHCR), the World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), among others, have been doing their best to help the Rohingyas, who have fled their homes to escape the ethnic cleansing drive being carried out by the Myanmar Army since late August.
But the flow of assistance, as happened in identical cases earlier, from external sources would gradually dry up and none but Bangladesh would have to shoulder the burden of more 1.0 million Rohingyas, including an estimated 0.5 million who had earlier entered the country.
Indications are that Myanmar would not take back its own people despite international pressure. In the past also, under different pretexts it had refused to take back its Rohingya population. There is every possibility that the Myanmar government would take recourse to the same strategy even if it agrees to take back the Rohingyas in the face of international criticism.
But, in the meanwhile, Bangladesh will have to cope with the Rohingya-influx fallout -- economic or otherwise. Already, the national budget has come under pressure from this unforeseen human tragedy and Finance Minister AMA Muhith has admitted the fact that the money that the government has been spending on Rohingyas would create an additional pressure on the government's revenue. The administration is facing an estimated revenue shortfall of at least Tk 20 billion because of the delay in enforcement of the new VAT law.
Barring the cost that the national exchequer is counting, the areas where the Rohingyas are now being sheltered are particularly being subjected to severe environmental degradation and economic loss. The areas are mainly located at Ukhia and Teknaf of Cox's Bazaar district. The authorities are rehabilitating the Rohingyas in areas comprising nearly 4,500 acres of hilly forest land.
When the Rohingyas started arriving in their thousands daily in recent months, the authorities were caught off-guard. The administration first allowed the refugees to build temporary shelters in hills, cutting thousands of trees. Later, it decided to take the refugees to large camps somewhere else. But, in the meanwhile, extensive damage was caused to the environment.
Moreover, the Rohingyas have been cutting thousands of trees in and around their makeshift camps where they have been sheltered for cooking purposes. According to an unofficial estimate, about 500 tonnes of firewood are being used by the Rohinygya refugees daily. The forest resources that have been damaged in Ukhia and Teknaf until now is worth about Tk 1.5 billion. The figures would obviously go up as time passes by.
The local people, who were initially helpful and sympathetic towards the Rohingyas, have developed a sort of hostile attitude towards the latter. They do know such an attitude is not proper for the sake of humanity. Yet they very often vent their frustration over the sufferings they are now undergoing due to the sudden influx of Rohingyas. They are particularly disturbed by the denudation of the forests and cutting of hills. But what is also hurting them most is the soaring prices of most essentials and loss of employment opportunities. The prices of most essentials are higher, in some cases nearly 100 per cent, than that of others areas of the country because of the excessive demand generated by the Rohingya influx. Rohingyas are selling their labour at wages lower than the normal market prices, thus, causing loss of jobs to the local daily wage earners.
If the stay of the Rohingyas becomes longer, as it had happened in the past, the country will be facing a serious security threat. For the time being, it might be possible to keep the Rohingyas confined to their camps. But many would ultimately manage to come out and spread to some other areas following relaxation of vigilance. Being vulnerable to all sorts of allurement, some of them might get involved in terrorist and other criminal activities.
Since money can buy anything in this country, they might be able to procure national ID cards, passports and other relevant documents for themselves as proof of their Bangladeshi citizenship. Past instances do create strong basis for such fear. Many Rohingyas managed Bangladeshi passports and got jobs in a number of Gulf countries. Later, they got involved in criminal activities there and earned bad name for Bangladesh.
It seems that the Myanmar administration has a plan to drive out its Rohingya population in full to Bangladesh. Barring a handful of countries, the world has unequivocally condemned the atrocities of Myanmar Army in evicting the Rohingyas from their homeland. But Myanmar, apparently, is not submitting to such pressure just because some next-door powerful regional neighbours are backing it. The USA and Europe are threatening to use military sanctions. But economic sanctions might prove more effective.
