Prior to its 2017 gathering in bone-chilling Davos, the World Economic Forum released a report listing the multiple risks to conducting business currently. Of note is that more than half of them are non-economic, as might be expected; but those that are economic also seem to be defying controls.
Among the top-20 risks (all tabulated from a survey of businessmen), only eight fall in the economic category, four in each of social and geo-politics, and with two each in extreme weather and technology. Whereas social and geo-politics roadblocks tend to be known variables, we finally have economists going on record acknowledging extreme weather risks, while those that are technological in this highly Internet-driven, Fourth Industrial Revolution age pose the most unknown of all variables.
No mincing words in mentioning how the world's top three business risks are economic: unemployment/underemployment; energy price-shocks; and fiscal crises. Those were top-listed by almost one-third of all respondents. They currently haunt developed economies, and fed the most unlikely events of a Brexit approval and Donald J. Trump's victory. Make no mistake though: since these are the export-markets of the emerging countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, the risks have the capacity to ripple beyond the Atlantic zone to stall growth elsewhere. Negotiating an exit is crucial to leaders of all countries visiting Davos.
The economic misfortunes continue down that list, occupying the 6th, 8th, 11th, and 13th positions: respectively, failure of financial mechanism/institution (21.9 per cent); failure of critical infrastructure (18.2 per cent); asset bubble (17.7 per cent); unmanageable inflation (16.6 per cent); and illicit trade (16. per cent). Of note for Bangladesh, some of these have begun impacting us: state-owned banks and the Bangladesh Bank fraud case expose the vulnerabilities in our financial institutions that cannot simply be papered over; our shift to, and expansion of, megaprojects indicate how crucial our infrastructural gaps happen to be, but also, with the huge amounts being invested in this already, how our government is far from sitting idly; and, of course, the cancerous growth of illicit trade is set to consume us, unless, as the 2016 border "haat" deal with India illustrates, we take some far-reaching measures.
That it takes two to tango is revealed once again to world leaders in Davos at a time of increasing nationalism. For Bangladesh, that means close collaboration with numerous countries over infrastructure-building, which, though not as brisk a machine as we would like it to be, is bringing in the investors and interest we sorely need, if not to complement our resources, then to breed the competition imperative to keeping the country from being engulfed by any one supply-country. We are not cut for great-power rivalry, but over economic competitiveness, our modest voice should suffice.
Societal risks include instability at the 5th slot (attracting 23.5 per cent of the votes), as well as involuntary migration at 16th (with 14.2 per cent), water crisis at 17th (13.6 per cent), and urban-planning failure at 18th (12.9 pr cent). Here we have far more at stake with the Rohingya cleansing campaign in Myanmar becoming a rude visitor at a stalled economic time, riparian agreements with India still incomplete (Teesta), as too domestic controls, especially in the metropolitan areas, where urban planning poses even greater threats in spite of piecemeal renovation (for instance, Dhaka's flyovers and metro-construction). These demand as much attention as, if not more than the Vision 2021 targets, if we are to meaningfully cherish our fiftieth birthday: other megaprojects will create some of the developed-world infrastructures we will need by then, but migration treatment, water management, and urban controls could stump any of their benefits. We hope this message is relayed loudly and clearly in Davos.
Turning to geo-political threats, the failure of national governments was 4th-ranked (28.7 per cent), terrorist attacks 7th (19.3 per cent), interstate conflict 10th (17.3 per cent), and state collapse/crisis 15th (14.4 per cent). Just as the "oborrodhs" of 2013-4 exposed how real the internal political threats are, we had direct experiences with terrorism and migratory border pressures during 2016, suggesting how the state could be better shored up. "Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty" said John Philpot Curran in 1790, an observation as eternally true as independence preservation and functionality is an obligation. No other options prevail: we must quench the country's developmental thirst by building the necessary order to facilitate free-flowing business.
Finally, both extreme weather and technological threats demand a lot more attention than the world is giving them. As a front-line climate-change country-at-peril, we cannot diminish our fortress-building measures since extreme weather events and catastrophes, the 19th and 20th risks, attracting 12.8 and 11.7, respectively, of the tally (and the failure of climate-change mitigation at 21st with 11.2 per cent of the votes), have long been our middle-name. In confronting them, as we cannot but pursue diligently, we must guard against the 12th- and 14th-ranked risks, cyber-attacks (16.4 per cent) and data fraud or theft (14.9 per cent). Russia is on the global front-page headline for complicity with the former in other countries, and the Philippines on our own media radar for the latter when neither should be there. What we do to counteract their efforts will lay the foundation of our future since these threats are not only set to explode in this Fourth Industrial Age (a theme the World Economic Forum addressed only recently in depth, and still continues to refer to), but also carry consequences that could reverse all our gains in one fell-swoop.
All in all, the 2017 WEF congregation has its work cut out for itself. As a country presently shielded from the economic ills gripping other countries, we do not have the luxury to be negligent on this front, nor too lackadaisical with the others. In none of them can we retreat behind a nationalistic shield, but the crux of the matter is how we mobilize outsiders to freely enter, invest, and ultimately share fruits that could be collectively beneficial.
Dr. Imtiaz A. Hussain is Professor & Head of the newly-built Department of Global Studies & Governance at Independent University, Bangladesh.
[email protected]
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