The spill-over effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Bangladesh's economy may be puzzling to the common man. The country's food production, lifestyle, energy supply, sources of raw materials, major exports and imports, remittances and development financing - none of these is dependent on either of the two warring parties (barring Russia's engagement in Rooppur Nuclear plant).
For many other nations as well, the fallouts are indirect and they aren't struggling. Yes, countries like Sri Lanka have fallen into deeper troubles in recent times, however, because of corruption and policy and governance failure. In the Bangladesh context, the war has contradicted conventional saying that 'every crisis offers certain opportunities'.
Risks, shocks, vulnerabilities and uncertainties were almost always there but Bangladesh could pursue a policy of economic progress over the past three decades. In the latest 10 years, no major external shocks were recorded, other than scams and kleptocratic activities at home.
The period witnessed a consensus among the local and international stakeholders that Bangladesh is well on track to become a developed country within a generation, as reiterated in the government's various policy documents.
Now it's frustrating for any citizen to observe that everything including a peaceful death is getting costlier much before Dhaka can match the facilities offered by Paris, Vanice or Los Angeles!
When you raise fuel price, dollar market gets volatile, people struggle to buy food and other stuff, and jobseekers aren't assured of employment, what does the fate of the country's graduation to the middle income status stand for?
Seeking budget support worth US$4.5 billion only from the International Monetary Fund doesn't bode well for an economy that has been cited time and again as a model one no longer dependent on foreign aid.
In fact, freedom from dependence on external powers in any way is the aspiration of the nationals of this land. Accordingly, they want to see resilience not only in terms of facing natural disasters but more in earning bread and butter and leading a dignified individual and collective life.
Nobody loves problems in life and society but when you have to deal with one, it's essential to show tolerance and prudence to not just find relief and immediate solution; long-term preparedness to overcome any crisis is seen as the characteristic of a strong, developed nation.
So, no matter how the situation is officially explained, the current reality may lead the people to raise questions about our capacity to manage a crisis. Only one war far away from home has now shifted the policymakers' entire focus to the short-term affairs like tackling inflation and surviving tough times. It's not wise to ignore the potential of tomorrow on the plea of addressing the crisis today.
In the current situation, what is being tested is the people's resilience -- how far they can take the pressure of price rise and erosion in income, not how they could have contributed to overcoming the crisis. If resilience itself is exhausted, one's future may unfortunately turn bleak.
We hardly know of the buffer stocks of resources, the way the ants save foods for the winter, that could have been dedicated to the Bangladesh people in times of crisis like the present one.
There is always a scope for contingency planning in the face of any emergencies should there be effective leadership. When a youth is provided neither with jobs and entrepreneurial opportunities, nor with unemployment benefits, none can appreciate the kind of investments being made for future Bangladesh.
