Official data in Bangladesh, in most cases, are taken with a grain of salt. Even some key government policymakers have made frank admission about the quality of data.
The government statistics on Covid infections and deaths also have not been any exception. Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, the government started publishing the data on infections, deaths and recovery daily. During the first wave, the infection remained mainly confined to urban centres, with Dhaka and Chittagong bearing the main brunt. But the second wave was far more widespread. It had reached the remote rural areas that lacked the facilities even to treat primary health problems.
SARS-CoV-2 claimed many lives during the first wave as physicians got exposed to a highly contagious viral disease unknown to them. Hospitals were ill-equipped to deal with a health emergency on such a massive scale. Everybody got scared. Even close relatives such as sons and daughters left their sick parents to die unattended for fear of getting infected by the virus. They watched from a distance as volunteers buried the dead.
The second wave overwhelmed the country's health facilities. Though doctors were better equipped than before to deal with the disease, the rush of patients from all corners of the country to major urban centres was overwhelming. They were helpless. Many patients died inside ambulances, failing to get a place in hospitals. It was a heart-rending sight everywhere.
The directorate general of health services has been dishing out statistics relating to Covid. Those have all through been suspect. They knew the government couldn't get the correct statistics. Some people think that the number of Covid deaths would be three to four times higher than what is being reported officially.
No wonder, a report published by the prestigious international medical journal Lancet has found the death figure to be very high. Until December 2021, the government estimate put the death figure at 28,100. The Lancet study estimates the number of deaths between 347,000 and 504,000. The DGHS estimated the death at 9.2 for every 100,000 people. But, according to the Lancet, the figure is about 144. During the peak infections, many people died of Covid-like infections both at hospitals and homes. But such deaths have not been included in the Covid casualty list.
However, such underestimation of Covid deaths is nothing unique in the case of Bangladesh. It was a global phenomenon. Even in the USA, the number of Covid deaths will be three times more than the official estimate, says the Lancet. In India, over 4.1million more people than the Indian government's estimate died of Covid. The global death figure will be three times more than what is shown officially. It means that 18.2 million people died of Covid during the last two years. Researchers reportedly got the death figures by analyzing the relevant data of 11 years.
As expected, the health officials dismissed outright the Lancet estimates for Bangladesh. Health experts including the ones who were very critical of the government's mismanagement during the first two waves also refused to accept the Lancet report. They admitted that the number of actual deaths due to Covid-19 will be more than the official count. But the Lancet figure seems to be outrageously high, they said. "There would have been bodies of dead Covid patients all along the streets if we accept the Lancet figure", one of the health experts quipped.
As far as Bangladesh is concerned, the actual number of deaths from Covid would never be known. But the government should start a survey across the country to get a reliable figure. One way of securing that will be to collect information from every village about the number of deaths during the pandemic time and that of normal time. The difference might lead to a probable Covid death figure. In the case of cities and towns, the number of burials in graveyards during pre-Covid and Covid times might also help get the desired numbers.
The government needs to know the Covid death figure for future use in management planning in the event of a major health crisis. The survey needs to be started immediately. Any delay is likely to make things difficult for those to be involved with the survey.
It is not just death figures, the authorities should also gather information on the loss caused by the pandemic to various areas of the economy. The loss of jobs and income sources could be an important area of the official study. Now that the virus is on the retreat, it is high time that the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) started its countrywide survey. Efficient collection of data and their proper analysis would surely help the planners devise the best strategies to recoup the losses caused by the deadly pathogen, at least partially.