After a spell of relatively satisfactory progress on economic fronts for a decade or so in terms of economic growth rate, export earnings, remittance, rice output, etc., the Bangladesh economy now seems to have been suddenly caught in a quagmire. Perhaps, economic fluctuations are, to a degree, fait accompli, but a wild and widespread one could cause a havoc.
Just a few months back, in April, untimely flash flood hit haor areas creating a disaster in terms of loss of crops, human and animal lives. Available estimates show that 8,00,000-10,00,000 tons of rice were lost due to that devastation. The loss of livestock and other assets knew no bounds. At the same time, blast attacks destroyed a few hundred thousand tons of food grains thus driving the deficit to a new peak.
Then came the flood in the second week of August that affected almost 40 districts. By and large, besides the loss of assets, the total food grain deficit is estimated to stand at three million tons. For the first time in last six years, the government has to augment domestic supply of cereals with imports from outside. In the meantime, imports at both private and government channels are picking up. But crisis confronts there also. As ill luck would have it, the international rice price, after depicting downward pressure for quite some time, has witnessed a rise thus putting a further spike in the import bill.
The downward trend in export earnings and remittances, as has been reported, would just add salt to the injury. The two consecutive floods have affected non-agricultural sector no less than what was done to the agricultural sector. In sum, both aggregate demand and supply balance of the economy have been disturbed, employment shrank, trade and business were gloomy. All these will have a serious bearing on implementation of the national budget.
But when the government, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), civil society and donors were attempting to heal the flood-inflicted wounds, mounting woes knocked on the door of Bangladesh with the influx of Rohingya refugees from across Myanmar. Drawing upon different sources of information, about 300,000 people from Rakhine state of Myanmar have fled to Bangladesh since August 25. Border Guard Bangladesh and foreign ministry officials estimate that another 100,000 persecuted Rohingyas were waiting along the border for entering Bangladesh.
According to one estimate, "The United Nations-led humanitarian agencies operating in Cox's Bazar would urgently need $77 million to assist people who fled violence in Rakhine state, Myanmar. To support the new arrivals, there is now an urgent need for 60,000 new shelters, as well as food, clean water, health, mental health services and support for survivors of sexual violence."
As noted earlier, since August 12, 2017, heavy monsoon rains have caused intense flooding across more than one-third of Bangladesh. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief reported that the floods are the worst in the last four decades. Affected children and their families are in urgent need of shelter, food, safe drinking water and sanitation as well as protection. Children are at risk of injury, exploitation and abuse as there is no safe place in the temporary shelters or roads, and parents are occupied with flood response. In addition, 50 per cent of females, in particular, in government shelters indicated that they were not feeling safe; particularly while using latrines and places for bathing. Children are out of school and it is not clear at this stage when they will resume schooling. According to the Disaster Management and Relief Ministry, a total of 2,918 medical teams are now working in flood hit districts to provide emergency healthcare services and protect people from water-borne diseases.
The Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) with the support from UNICEF, is responding to approximately 1.5 million flood-affected people in 25 districts by raising 2,298 tube-wells, repairing 10,322 tube-wells, disinfecting 28,352 tube-wells, installing 379 tube-wells, constructing 828 latrines in flood shelters, distributing 1,045,625 water purification tablets, 5,080kg of bleaching powder, 6,400 jerry cans and 837 hygiene kits. The local government is conducting a sectoral assessment forecast that improved WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygine) services to 278,000 people (equivalent to 5,560 households) in Jamalpur, Netrokona, Dinajpur, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Netrokona and Sirajganj districts, will be needed over the next six months. At least 202 people were infected with diarrhoea, 175 people suffered with fever, and 99 other suffered flood-related injuries in 18 districts.
The natural and man-made calamities have put a heavy pressure on the economy threatening continuation of the higher growth rate trajectory. The huge food deficit, in the face of partially lost Amon and fully damaged Boro in haor areas, unless covered by sufficient imports could result in serious food crises. The Rohiynga influx from Myanmar might add further fuel to the fire. Pragmatic policies need to be drawn up to handle all these crises in an effective manner.
The writer is a former Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University.
