Not long ago, many lower middle-income people in the country had started believing what the people in the higher authorities wanted them to lend credence to. The words would, in effect, revolve round the morale boosters that the wildly galloping market was set to be tamed down. The humble urban middle class in Dhaka and the large cities then looked to the days when the market of the essentials would be within their reach. Their expectations were met to some extent. They started visiting the kitchen markets and found the prices of some products were really on the decline. The price fall was nominal, with some finding the trend to be imperceptible. In a weird trajectory, the prices of some products began shooting up again, after remaining static for a few weeks. They included sugar, eggs and edible oil in the main.
With this erratic price behaviour continuing without respite, the fixed-income people found themselves relapsing into their price entanglement. Apparently, in the last 10 months the prices of the staples and the other essential food items including vegetables went through a course featured by unpredictability. The chronically low-income people were the worst victims. Since the first detection of the price-hike, their queues have continued getting longer in front of OMS trucks, and those selling edible oil, sugar etc. The Open Market Sales (OMS) points were eventually found spread throughout the country's divisional and district headquarters.
The heating up of the retail markets selling rice, atta, pulses, sugar, spices and also fishes and meat is a common phenomenon in the country. In the normal market scenario, especially during the post-disaster times and on the eve of festivals, syndicates are found busy working from behind the scenes. Their clandestine market manipulations start from hoarding products like rice, atta, oil and spices. An artificial crisis of these essential goods follows. It's after abundant imports of rice and wheat and increase in their acreage in the country, the markets are seen turning normal. This is part of a dirty game found at play in the poorer countries. Had it not for the impacts of the 2-year-long corona pandemic, and the fallout of the recent Russia-Ukraine war, the Bangladesh market would have remained quite free of negative developments.
The two scourges have affected the country almost simultaneously. However, the nation could avert the major assault of a food crisis and weather the first phase of the shocks, thanks to the bumper production of two of its major food-crops including the Aman paddy. In spite of these crops' satisfactory yields, the creeping of the price hike of rice and wheat/flour still remains a quandary to market researchers. But they ought not to feel puzzled, as the other experts have plain interpretations of the whole episode. According to them, despite seemingly unlikely, the hoarders remained active from the start of the two crises; and they still are.
Current affairs experts have yet to see any silver lining in the Russia-Ukraine war. With the intensity of the war increasing by way of additions of newer deadly weapons followed by casualties on both sides, the largely skewed war carries few chances of ending soon. Referring to this situation, war experts warn of many other new nations being sucked into the regional war. The war being fanned out to a wider front, the fear of the otherwise peaceful nations joining the armed conflict will result in a global phenomenon. That is feared to be followed by pockets of agro-economic depression. None can rule out such a situation for Bangladesh. A depression in economy leads, invariably, to the dreary times of destabilised markets, price hike, and, above all, fall in import of many essential food items. In spite of its 'avowed' neutral foreign policy, Bangladesh may not avoid being drawn to a camp opposed to another. Thus, the test of wartime policy balance stalks the nation. A wrong step in the act of faring through turbulent times may find the country in the soup.
The ravages of worldwide Covid-19 have seemingly been over. But the pandemic cannot be said to have left the world. In order to see it beat a retreat, humanity has to wait till 2023, maybe more. The impediments to the smooth functioning of markets, domestic and international, still loom large. In the case of Bangladesh, the curse of price hike that keeps plaguing its middle and low-income people appears to have dug its heels in. Amid this confused state of the economy, dominated by price hikes and occasionally imperceptible price drops, the domestic retail market clients have few options but frenetically looking for OMS sales points. During the times of going through forced frugality amidst belt-tightening, nobody knows for how long, the situation gets on one's nerves. Mere blaming the market manipulators may not do. If there are proofs, these anti-people elements should be brought to book right away. The month of Ramadan followed by Eid shopping isn't too far. Despite warnings from the government against food price manipulation in the fasting month, the market racketeers barge into the scene after less than a fortnight. These elements shouldn't be allowed to rake in during the Ramadan and after.
shihabskr@ymail.com