In its latest move, Russia is learnt to have begun aggression against Ukraine. Earlier, Russia termed it 'military operation' in the breakaway areas of the eastern Ukraine purportedly in response to the call of the separatist leaders of the Donbasarea for help against what they said Ukrainian aggression. Russia, on its part, has asked Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to surrender. The Ukrainian president in an address to the nation has vowed to defend his country against a full-scale war imposed by Russia on it. Clearly, what the US and its Western allies had so far been predicting about the Russian intent regarding Ukraine is perhaps finally going to happen. Russian president Vladimir Putin's words that clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces were 'inevitable' and that it was 'only a question of time' as to when it is going to take place testifies to the verity of the Western fears.
But what prompted Russian president Vladimir Putin to change his previous stance of not to recognise two separatist areas of eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent republics? When hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis was looking brighter with reports of Russia withdrawing some of its troops from Ukrainian border and French president Emmanuel Macron drawing closer to brokering a peace deal between US president Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the later in an address to the nation made a sudden about-turn and took a tougher stance against the West blaming it for undermining security in Eastern Europe. He reiterated his demand that Ukraine must not join the NATO and that its status be one of a buffer state. His troops entered the separatists-held eastern Ukraine, a move that was immediately reciprocated by sanctions from the West. Meanwhile, condemnations from the world leaders against the latest Russian action in eastern Ukraine have been pouring in. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres while addressing the UN Security Council pleaded Russia not to attack Ukraine. But to all appearances nothing is going to stop Russia from achieving its mission in the Ukrainian context.
Now the question that would naturally arise is what were the Western powers actually doing all these days that Russia have been mobilising its war machine surrounding Ukraine? Are the West's threats of serious actions including sanctions just empty words? Russian president Vladimir Putin is surely not a fool to risk a world war over Ukraine. There is no question that he took every step in a calculated manner. He was definitely aware of the Western limitations about coming to the aid of Ukraine in case a war finally breaks out. He knew that since Ukraine was not a member of the Western military alliance, NATO, the latter cannot help Ukraine militarily if attacked by Russia. He is also aware of the clash of interests among NATO-member states over different regional and international issues. Evidently, he has not failed to notice, for example, how France was snubbed by US and Australia over scrapping of a submarine supply deal that the latter reached earlier with France. And who does not know that Germany under its present leadership is more pacifist and wants to chart its own independent foreign policy course? Most importantly, since the Trump era, the US has gradually been losing its grip on the world affairs. So, why should Putin wait to flex its military muscle when the time is opportune? In fact, Ukraine has proved to be a pure scapegoat for Putin to test the West's resolve that the latter has so far been daring it to do.
As expected, Russia is prepared to face more economic weapons of 'sanctions' from the West. That sanctions are a face-saving device that the US and its Western allies have been using against big powers like Russia and China have become plain to all. Even Iran, which is under US sanctions since long, does not seem to have budged an inch from its defiance of the West. If anything, under a sanction, only the common people of the country concerned suffer and not its ruling elite. This is more so for bigger powers like Russia and China. Next comes the issue of suspending gas supply to Europe through the proposed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. True, it will cost Russia a lot, but neither is energy-starved Europe going to gain much from any disruption in the gas supply network connecting it. In truth, there will be no ultimate winner from an escalation of the war situation in the region in question. Russia may have its historical reasons, as claimed by president Putin in his address, to claim Ukraine as its own. But no one can also deny the Ukrainian people's unique characteristics, its own history and its language in particular. Though every Ukrainian can speak Russian due to its long past being a part of the Russian empire till the end of the Soviet era, it does not nullify the fact that it is now an independent nation and that the rest of the world recognises it to be so. In that case, any effort to forcibly reintegrate Ukraine with Russia against the will of the Ukrainian people under the pretext of any so-called historical ground will be against international law and as such treated as pure aggression by the world community. The fallout from such a reckless move against Ukraine will ultimately prove to be disastrous for all the parties involved in the crisis.
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