Bangladesh is one of the countries that are likely to gain from a 'no-deal' Brexit, according to a report of the United Nations (UN) that came out on Tuesday.
The country's export to the United Kingdom (UK) is likely to go up by 10 percent, if the UK is ultimately forced to leave the European Union (EU) without a deal.
In sheer numbers, this may mean a net gain of around US$ 367 million for Bangladesh's export to the UK, according to the report of a research conducted by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
As a reason behind this, the report noted that "the countries that are beneficiaries of unilateral preferences (e.g. Bangladesh)" are the ones which will benefit the most from a 'no-deal' Brexit.
The UNCTAD projection, however, does not correspond well with the latest figures coming from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).
As per the EPB data, Bangladesh's export earnings from the UK during the first half of the current fiscal year (FY), 2018-19, posted only a 3.16 percent increase, compared to 14.42 percent overall export growth for the country.
Bangladesh earned $ 2.04 billion from exports to the UK during July-December period of FY 19. The figure was $ 1.98 billion during the same period a year ago, the EPB data shows.
Exporters have mostly blamed the slowdown in the UK economy due to uncertainty over Brexit as a reason for such a sluggish export growth to the country.
In the last FY, Bangladesh's overall export earnings from the UK saw an 11.76 percent growth to $ 3.99 billion, compared to $ 3.57 billion in the previous fiscal. In FY 2016-17, export growth to the UK was 12.63 percent, reaching $ 3.72 billion.
The UNCTAD report also comes at a time when the EU has just granted the UK a six-month extension to Brexit. The new deadline is October 31.
However, the island nation still risks a 'no-deal' Brexit, if its Prime Minister Theresa May fails to win over lawmakers on the treaty.
The UK will have to participate in the European parliamentary elections on May 23-26, or risk leaving the EU on June 1 without a deal.
In a referendum held on June 23, 2016, the UK decided to leave the EU, as 52 percent of the people voted for an exit, while 48 percent voted to stay with the union.
The country, however, has failed to curve a clear path for coming out of the EU, because Theresa May's Brexit plans have repeatedly failed to win parliament majority.
Meanwhile, in the UNCTAD study, China has been projected to be the largest gainer of a 'no-deal' Brexit, as the Asian giant could gain an additional $ 10.2 billion in exports to the UK.
The second biggest winner would be the United States, which stands to add $ 5.3 billion through its exports to the UK. In addition to China and the US, Japan could expect to gain $ 4.9 billion.
A 'no-deal' Brexit is also expected to result in increased imports from Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Viet Nam and New Zealand, among others.
Meanwhile, the largest losses would accrue to the EU countries, given that they are the most economically-integrated with the UK.
The EU member countries stand to lose out on $ 34.5 billion in exports to the UK.
The second biggest loser in the event of the UK's 'no-deal' departure from the EU would be Turkey, taking a $ 2.4-billion export hit.
Besides, South Korea, Pakistan, Norway, Iceland, Cambodia and Switzerland are also in the risk of seeing a decline in their exports.
"Brexit is not only a regional affair. Once the UK has left its 27 European Union partners behind, it will alter the ability of the non-EU countries to export to the UK market," said Pamela Coke-Hamilton, the UNCTAD's director of international trade and commodities.
"The UK's intention to lower Most Favoured Nations (MFN) tariffs would increase relative competitiveness of the major exporting countries, such as China or the US, thereby eroding market share away from the less competitive countries," she added.
