King Salman bin-Abdul Aziz, the octogenarian ruler of Saudi Arabia, has announced to abdicate the throne in favour of his son Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salman. It came as a bolt from the blue as none of his predecessors had retired, though many of them allowed their successors to function as de-facto rulers during their last days.
Crown Prince Mohammed has been aggressively pursuing social, economic and foreign policies in the past three years dispelling any doubt who governs the country. Two weeks ago 38 affluent and influential persons, including eleven members of the royal family, were arrested and kept in detention on charges of corruption. It is unclear whether they would be produced before a Sharia Court for trial where the punishment for theft and corruption includes amputation of hands. But rumour is rife that they might be exonerated in exchange of heavy fines or surrendering illegally accumulated wealth to the state. About 60 clerics were also arrested but their alleged crimes and whereabouts are unknown.
Mohammed's growing influence in the government was manifested in April 2016 when he published "Vision 2030" signalling a shift from over-reliance on the oil industry and diversification of the economy. The diversification programme envisaged setting up home-based defence industry, promotion of tourism and liberalisation of employment procedures of foreign skilled workers. The diminishing price of oil in the global market and Saudi Arab's prolonged military engagement in Yemen came as a stark reminder to Mohammed that traditional management of the economy will spell disaster for the country. International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the government that its foreign exchange reserve would exhaust in five years.
The purge launched two weeks ago is interpreted as consolidation of power by Mohammed. Saudi women have long been denied of any political role and Mohammed's liberalisation programme enfranchising women and enabling them to drive cars came as an affront to the long-held policies of the clerics. The police responsible for enforcement of religious practice did not, reportedly, take the newly promulgated edicts in good spirit.
Political observers maintain that Mohammed has embraced challenges on multiple fronts simultaneously. Enfranchisement of women, permitting women to drive and work outside and even participate in sports would be hailed by the younger generation and progressive elements who resent wealthy princes and palace insiders. But his game plan risks a backlash within the royal family because it marks a departure from the kingdom's traditional values. The opposition led by hardcore conservatives in the society would be diffused gradually. However, the greater challenge lies in the external front and the government will be required to take actions under a comprehensive well-thought-out regional plan.
The American-led Iraq invasion in 2003 and de-induction of foreign troops from Iraq in 2012 swiftly brought the war-torn country under Iran's political, cultural and economic influence. The resurgence of Shiite rule in Baghdad strengthened Tehran's strategy to transcend its political influence beyond the Mediterranean Sea. Ruthless persecution of Sunnis in Iraq during Maliki's government, believed to have been carried out at Tehran's behest, caused consternation in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. The nuclear deal between the US-led countries, known as P5+1, and Iran escalated the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia considered Iran as an enemy and resolved to contain it along with its cohorts-- the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Mohammed visited Moscow twice during this year seeking Moscow's help to persuade Iran to withdraw its troops from Syria.
Saudi Arabia got embroiled in Yemen's civil war and two years of engagement hasn't scored military victory. The air strikes and the blockades imposed on Yemen brought colossal damages to its infrastructure and inflicted unprecedented human sufferings. United Nations agencies estimated that 7.0 million people in Yemen are on the brink of famine. Last week 29 vessels with 300,000 tons of food and 192,000 tons of fuel have been blocked and another 25,000 tons are waiting to berth at Hodeida port. About one million children are at the risk of diphtheria and the lives 400,000 pregnant mothers and their babies are threatened because of lack of medicine. The UN agencies have demanded immediate lifting of blockade in order to transport the essential supplies to the people most at risk. This war must end now.
Saudi Arabia orchestrated a diplomatic offensive against Qatar two months ago and severed diplomatic relation. Egypt, UAE and the Gulf States followed suit. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson tried to diffuse the tension but with little success. Qatar was accused of funding terrorists which its rulers vehemently denied. Saudi Arabia imposed blockade disrupting its own supply of food items to Qatar. Qatar used to import about 40 per cent of its food requirement from the kingdom. Saudi Arabia demanded, among others, shutting down of the Al-zajjera in Doha. Iran dispatched shipments of food and helped Qatar to overcome the impact of blockade.
Saad Hariri, the Labanese Prime Minister, while on a visit to Riyadh, announced on November 04 that he was resigning as Lebanon's prime minister. The extraordinary circumstances under which Hariri announced his resignation escalated tension in the region. French President Emmanuel Macron warned Saudi leader that Hariri's resignation will have far-reaching consequences. He demanded Hariri to be set free and visit Paris. Hariri flew to Paris with his wife but his sons are still in Riyadh. Under a power-sharing agreement, Hariri holds the portfolio of prime minister and his abrupt disappearance would have risked a political turmoil. President Macron's appropriate and timely intervention averted a crisis in Lebanon which could have impacted the entire region. Hariri is expected to return to Beirut this week.
Mohammed's adventures in Yemen, Qatar and most recently in Lebanon bear the hallmark of a reckless policy set in motion without much scrutiny. It is now certain that the war in Yemen cannot be won militarily and time is running out fast for a diplomatic solution. As casualty mounts in Yemen, Riyadh would be denounced for its unjust intervention. Saudi's assault on Qatar ended without achieving much. In the meantime, the United States made a defense deal of $30 billion with Qatar. Hariri's detention and dramatic release debunked a fiasco which could have destabilised Lebanon and by extension the region. All these will have adverse impact on the recently initiated reforms in Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed has inherited a political system obsolete in the 21st century. The royal family rules the country and shares most resources among themselves. The 20 million people have no role in the governance of the country. There is no parliament and there is complete absence of accountability. Saudi political system doesn't conform to any acceptable political narratives. The government in Saudi Arabia is of the royal family, by the royal family and for the royal family.
Mohammed, being at the helm, owes a solemn responsibility to the present and future generations to firmly steer the country into a democratic system where people will have the opportunity to participate in the governance of the country. Relationship between the people and the monarchy needs to be constructed on a new trajectory. Paving this transition will be a litmus test for the young Saudi leader.
The writer is a former official of the United Nations.
