On February 1, the military in Myanmar overthrew the government led by Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) that was re-elected in the election held in November 2020 with an increased majority. The military backed party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) faired poorly in the election securing only 33 seats while ASSK-led National League for Democracy (NLD) secured 396 seats. ASSK and her ally President Win Myint are both in detention now like many of her associates. Coup leaders declared one-year state of emergency and announced that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing would take charge of Myanmar during the year-long state of emergency. Now the military is in full control of the country.
The election results drew immediate allegations of electoral fraud and called for a rerun of the election from the military backed USDP. The military, known as the Tatmadaw supported the assertions made by the USDP and also claimed that the army had its own investigative proof of 10.5 million suspect voters. However, it must be noted that Human Rights Watch and other groups are also of the view that the election was flawed because of the disfranchisement of Rohingyas and others. Ironically ASSK was instrumental in disfranchising the Rohingyas. ASSK is also not an unalloyed symbol of democracy and human rights. In fact, ASSK herself has undermined the democratic process since 2015.
The military justified its action on constitutional grounds. The constitution does allow for the military to assume state power in any situations that could cause "disintegration of the Union, disintegration of national solidarity and loss of sovereign power". According to the military, the allegations of electoral fraud fit this constitutional criteria for the military to assume state power. Therefore, technically, it is not a coup, though in reality it is a coup because it removed a "Myanmar style" civilian government and assumed state power. However, political observers of Myanmar cite a number of factors that possibly have contributed to the takeover of the state power by the military. General Min Aung Hlaing is due to retire in July this year. He always harboured the ambition to become the President of the country after his retirement. He put his close associate U Than Htay in charge of USDP to use it as his personal political organisation to achieve his political ambitions.
But the election has weakened his position as the military sponsored party USDP performed very badly, thus diminishing its influence in parliament. The General took the electoral decimation of the USDP personally thus directing his animus against his erstwhile partner in crime ASSK and her associates. Such a falling out of the General with ASSK also indicates that ASSK's policy of accommodation and cooperation with this brutal, corrupt and genocidal military has been a complete failure.
Furthermore, as Commander in Chief, Min Aung Hlaing has the ultimate authority over the military's two major corporate conglomerates - Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holding Limited (MEHL). These two military corporate entities have investments in a various sectors of the economy such as mining, manufacturing, telecommunication and others. Also, business owned by his children Aung Pyae Sone and KhinThiriThet Mon have profited from their access to state resources during his tenure as commander in chief. It is, therefore, suggested that the coup was not simply about to preserve his political influence and political future, but also his wealth.
The military as an institution no longer has as much power as it used to have in the past and the election outcome threatens their business operations. In fact, UN investigators in the past called on world leaders to impose targeted sanctions on the two corporate conglomerates of the military so as not to allow them to use financial resources to undertake military operations against ethnic minorities like the Rohingyas.
Now that the military is in power, it is difficult to fathom their future plan. Also, what they are going to do in the year that they have given to themselves to run the country except that they intend to hold an election once the state of emergency ends. It is suggested that the military during this period might try to work out a way to share power with more agreeable civilian politicians. It is also possible that they may give up on any power sharing altogether. If history is any guide to predict the future, it must be noted that since Myanmar gained independence in 1948, the country has been ruled by military junta most of the time.
Meanwhile, protests have been gaining momentum against the coup across the country. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets across the whole country both in urban centres and rural areas to protest against the coup, calling for democracy and release of ASSK and her associates. Pro-ASSK demonstrators also rallied in very remote and quiet capital city of Naypyitaw.
Naypyitaw (abode of the king) became the capital in 2006 and is considered as a strange capital city. There is a weird story behind this secretive city. The story goes like this-- Myanmar's military junta wanted a new capital away from Yangon fearing an invasion from the sea. So, they sought the help from a soothsayer to decide on the location which would be immune from any invasion. The soothsayer not only helped select the site for the new capital but also predicted that a grand capital would emerge which would thwart any invasion from anywhere. The soothsayer also advised the junta leaders that Yangon was haunted by ghosts, Naypyitaw would be a clean slate. Now it appears there is an invasion of the capital taking place from within the city itself.
The 2020 elections were held after the Myanmar military launched genocidal attack on the Rohingyas in the Rakhine state which forced more than 700,000 Rohingyas to flee to neighbouring Bangladesh. ASSK defended the military attack on the Rohingyas terming it an anti-terrorist operation but UN investigators said the attack was executed with "genocidal intent".
She even went to Hague to appear before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to defend the junta from charges of genocide. The Myanmar side of the case was dressed up as military targeting Muslim terrorists-- a terminology (Muslim terrorist) taken straight from the jargons used by the US government in its global campaign against Muslims and popularised by the US corporate media where Muslims equal terrorists. The Rohingyas are Muslims in their religious belief, so they fit the US definition of terrorists. She chose to provide the most high profile defence of her government's persecution and dispossession of the Rohingyas who as mentioned already also happen to be Muslims and justifying military actions as anti-terrorist operations.
The UN's special rapporteur on Myanmar accused ASSK of "complicity" in the crime. The former UN High Commissioner for Refugees, ZeidRa'ad al Hussein referring to how the Myanmar army dispatched Rogingya children often throats slit in Rohingya villages in the Rakhine state in 2016, told ASSK "You have moral standing in this country. You have to stop this". Hussein, in fact, was referring to the massacre that took place at a village called Dar GyiZar in November, 2016. Her response was that the UN needed to share more evidence with her. She was lying through her teeth. This discussion took place one year before the genocidal attacks against the Rohingyas began in September 2017. In fact, the genocide was committed under her watch.
The US and other Western countries, the self-proclaimed defenders of human rights continued to remain sympathetic to ASSK and she has never been sanctioned for her support for the military committing crimes against humanity and genocide against the Rohingyas.
The slit throat, bodies split open by bullet holes, the charred bones that blackened the earth are all graphic evidence of Myanmar army's atrocities but ASSK remained steadfast in turning her eyes away.
But the truth remains she and the military are quite popular in so far as the Rohingyas are concerned and the treatment meted out to them. ASSK's trip to the Hague and her decision to defend the military earned her huge plaudits at home.
Now the sudden seizure of state power by the military and ASSK in detention have created further uncertainty about the fate of the Rohingyas both in the Rakhine state where there are still 600,000 Rohingyas of whom about 126,000 are interned in concentration camps in the central part of the state as well as for about a million Rohingya refugees now in Bangladesh.
The military coup in Myanmar has now created uncertainty over the repatriation arrangement that had been worked out between Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is deeply worrying for the Bangladesh government in view of the regime change in Myanmar and the Myanmar army's track record.
The Bangladesh government may now have to work out a repatriation arrangement over a much longer timeframe while continuing to build international pressure on Myanmar to find a durable solution for Rohingyas refugees in Bangladesh ensuring they can go back straight to their own homes in Rakhine with dignity and full citizenship rights, and definitely not to camps.