Donald Trump's latest and ongoing fight with US District Judge Gonzalo Curiel who has Mexican lineage and the manner of the fight could have dangerous consequences not just for his pursuit for the White House but also for the prospects of the Republican Party (GOP) in elections to retain its majority in the Senate, when along with the presidential election on November 08, US voters will also elect 1/3 of the Senate seats.
In fact, some of these leaders are deeply worried that the Party may even lose its commanding majority in the House of Representatives when a new House would also be elected on November 08. These leaders are seeing a parallel with what had happened in US politics in 1964. That year, the Republican Party candidate Barry Goldwater not only lost his bid to become the President to Lyndon Johnson, he also hurt the Party badly in other national elections like those in the Congress for years to come. Barry Goldwater had hurt the Republican Party by his anti-civil right stance that had totally alienated the African-Americans from the Republican Party.
A lot has changed in US politics since then. The votes of the African-Americans are still important. However, the Latinos/Hispanics have moved ahead of the American Americans as the second largest voting bloc in US national elections. In 2012, after President Barack Obama had returned to power easily, the Republican Party establishment had run an internal assessment to pinpoint the reasons for their defeat. One major reason that emerged out of the assessment was the way the Latinos-Hispanics voted in that election. The Latinos-Hispanics had voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Democrats. Seventy-one per cent of the Latino-Hispanic votes went to President Barak Obama while 27 to Governor Mitt Romney.
The Republican Party had then concluded that unless it could increase its share of the Latino-Hispanic vote substantially in its favour, it would not have a fair chance of winning the White House. It further concluded that it would also face similar problems in elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives as well. Unfortunately, Donald Trump is not a Republican insider. He did not care for anything but the party's presidential ticket. He correctly assessed that in the Republican Party there is a big number of voters -- between 25-30 per cent -- who hate the Latinos/Hispanics, the blacks, the Muslims and the immigrants and if he aggressively insulted these groups, he would easily beat the 16 others who would be left to share the remaining 70 per cent.
That is what exactly happened. Thirty per cent plus a few or minus a few of Republican voters for whom hatred is a strong motivation found in Donald Trump their hero. The more venom he spread in his hate campaign, the more these voters backed him ultimately giving him the ticket with the Republican establishment leaders watching as bystanders. Their only hope since Donald Trump assured himself of the nomination has been that he would tone down his hate rhetoric. Instead of that happening, the case of his fight with Judge Curiel has devastated the Party's leadership because it has angered the country's Latino/Hispanic population even more.
Judge Curiel is linked with another dangerous development related to Donald Trump and his candidature. He is the Judge investigating the corruption in the Trump University. The way the case of the Trump University is developing, it has the potential of a dynamite to make his candidature history. Employees of the Trump University who have gone public have described it as a "giant rip-off" while the highest legal officer of New York State where the University is located has described it as a "classic bait and switch scheme".
Therefore, it is out of fear of what Judge Curiel's investigation could reveal that Donald Trump attacked the Judge believing what is now his well-established style that attack is the best means of defence. Unfortunately, with the attack on the Judge, Donald Trump has further trashed the sentiments of the Latino-Hispanics. At this stage when he is going to be the Republican Party's candidate, the issue of his fight with Judge Curiel has appeared before the Republican Party leaders and conservative thinkers around the country as the virtual Red Flag. Thus, Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker urged Donald Trump to "change his combative confrontation style before it is too late"; House and Senate GOP leaders have condemned Donald Trump's remarks and "donors have openly expressed their worry that losing Latino voters could doom them in key down-ballot races."
The case with Judge Curiel is also significant as it is not just the Latino/Hispanics that Donald Trump has alienated. The attack has revealed his contempt for a system upon which a fundamental pillar of American democracy is based, namely that of the independence and impartiality of the judiciary. In attacking Judge Curiel, Donald Trump also said he would have said the same if the judge had been a Muslim. In the attack on Judge Curiel, Donald Trump has thus underlined that as president, his views on judges and the judiciary would depend on the racial and ethnic background of the judges and not on their intellect and integrity -- a very damning assessment of a fundamental institution of the country's democracy.
Therefore, with Donald Trump as their candidate, the Republican Party leaders are in fear of not just losing the presidency; they are afraid that the adverse effects would be far worse. That fear was expressed by Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell who in an interview with CNN recently raised the Goldwater comparison. The Senator also made a point of what Donald Trump's hate campaign, particularly against the Latino/Hispanics is doing to the Republican Party. He said that when Ronald Reagan was elected, 84 per cent of US voters were white. That figure is now 70 per cent. He concluded from the comparison that it would be a huge mistake for the Republican Party to "write off Latino Americans" as Donald Trump is undoubtedly doing.
Veteran Republican Party strategist Rick Wilson, expressing his anger on those GOP leaders who endorsed Donald Trump, wrote in a newspaper column: "You own his politics. You own the racial animus that started out as a bug, became a feature and is now the defining characteristic of his campaign. You own every crazy, vile chunk of word vomit that spews from his mouth." He called upon the Party's leadership to ensure that Donald Trump would be sensible if it wanted to avoid the Goldwater effect that is now the Party's "deepest fear" that "could last far longer than Donald Trump's political aspirations."
The situation for the Republican Party leaders with Latino-Hispanic votes is now far worse than what it was in 2012 thanks entirely to Donald Trump. PEW Research Institute based in Washington DC in one of its latest research findings has stated that nearly 90 per cent Latino-Hispanics have now moved away from the Republican Party which would leave Donald Trump's chances of succeeding President Barack Obama very bleak indeed.
The writer is a retired Ambassador.
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