Bangladesh's Boro paddy acreage reached an all-time high at 4.96 million hectares this season with prospects for a bumper harvest, officials say, but hopes seem dim for rice-price respite.
Value-chain experts see such a paradoxical scenario as high costs of farm inputs fuelled up by diesel-and fertiliser-price hike, among others, diminish prospect of dousing the overheated rice market.
On the other hand, farmers are also concerned about reaping desired returns because higher input costs could push up production cost by 15-18 per cent with end of harvest, they say.
Agricultural ministry's preliminary report, published by the Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE), shows farmers have brought an all-time-high 4.96 million hectares of land under Boro farming this year.
The cultivation acreage of the dry-season irrigated paddy in 2022 is above 3.76- per cent higher than that of last year, according to DAE and BBS counts.
The DAE has a target of production at 20.9 million tonnes of rice in the current financial year. It is a 5.55-per cent higher target than that of last year when an all-time high 19.8 million tonnes of rice was yielded, according to BBS data.
Director-general of the DAE Md Benojir Alam says good profits from rice crop as well as a persisting sound weather so far prospect another bumper crop this Boro season.
He expects harvest to start in haor, beel and many lowlands within one and a half weeks while it will begin in other parts of the country in May.
Mr Alam says hybrid fields have been expanded further while farmers have also cultivated two newly invented HYV rice varieties -- BRRI dhan 89 and 92 -- which are finer in quality and yield more grains.
"If the current weather conditions persist, production would surpass the output of last year by a good margin," he says.
Farm economist Prof Golam Hafeez Kennedy suggests that fair trading in post-harvest period should be ensured so that both farmers and consumers could get some benefits of such good crops.
He says farmers have a great challenge as production cost increased notably by 15-18 per cent amid fuelling prices of fertiliser, costs of irrigation, transportation and others caused by 23-per cent hike in diesel price.
"But the government didn't review the asking prices of Boro crop compared to last year," he says.
He notes that paddy-production cost might surpass Tk 28 a kg this year in many places, but the government has declared its procurement rate at Tk 27 a kg.
"The government could face difficulties in rice and paddy procurement this Boro season for retaining the rate of last year," he says.
The agro-economist feels that government warehouses should have a 2.0-2.5 million tonnes of buffer foodgrain stock following the prevailing war between Russia and Ukraine which pushed up food-grain and other crop prices.
Prof Kennedy says the current high rice prices might persist for towering input costs as well as rocketing trend in global food market.
Meanwhile, rice prices remained static for last one week at their previous highs as coarse varieties were retailing at Tk 42-52, medium Tk 48-58 and finer Tk 54-85 a kg across the country, according to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, the Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM) and city grocers.
The current rice prices are 2.0-7.0-per cent higher than those of a year back, according to TCB data.
However, according to Directorate General of Food (DGoF) data, public warehouses have a handsome stock of 1.45 million tonnes of the staple.
The DGoF has declared a target to purchase 1.9 million tonnes of rice and paddy under its Boro-procurement programme this year which is expected to be kicked off on April 28.
The country's overall rice production was 36.3 million tonnes in FY'21 of which Boro contributed 55 per cent, according to BBS.
The 'all rice price index' increased above 1.1 per cent to an eight-month high in February last, says FAO -- the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.
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