Global merchandise trade volume may post a growth rate of 10.80 per cent in the current year, according to the latest projection of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Earlier, in March this year, WTO forecasted an 8.0 per cent growth in global merchandise trade in terms of volume.
The growth will be moderated to 4.70 per cent in the next year, according to the latest prediction of the WTO economists.
“Growth should moderate as merchandise trade approaches its pre-pandemic long-run trend,” said a press statement of the WTO in this regard. “Supply-side issues such as semiconductor scarcity and port backlogs may strain supply chains and weigh on trade in particular areas, but they are unlikely to have large impacts on global aggregates. The biggest downside risks come from the pandemic itself.”
It also added that behind the strong overall trade increase, however, there is significant divergence across countries, with some developing regions falling well short of the global average.
WTO released the revised forecasts for trade growth in 2021 and 2022 at a press conference held on Monday in Geneva and virtually.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of WTO, said: “Trade has been a critical tool in combatting the pandemic, and this strong growth underscores how important trade will be in underpinning the global economic recovery.”
"But inequitable access to vaccines is exacerbating economic divergence across regions,” she also added at the press conference. “The longer vaccine inequity is allowed to persist, the greater the chance that even more dangerous variants of Covid-19 will emerge, setting back the health and economic progress we have made to date."
"As we approach the 12th Ministerial Conference, members must come together and agree on a strong WTO response to the pandemic, which would provide a foundation for more rapid vaccine production and equitable distribution. This is necessary to sustain the global economic recovery. Vaccine policy is economic policy - and trade policy," she further added.
Regarding global economic growth, WTO said that global GDP will grow by 5.30 per cent in 2021, up from 5.1 per cent forecasted in March. Growth will be lower to 4.1 per cent in 2022.
WTO also mentioned that regional disparities will remain large adding that imports of Asia in 2021 are expected to rise 9.40 per cent compared to 2019, while imports of Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will fall 1.6 per cent.