The ongoing lockdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak has posed a serious challenge for the government to strike a balance between the need for resuming economic activities and the possibility of further spread of the virus.
Already, the shutdown that passed more than a month has taken its toll on the country's overall trade and economic activities.
The major challenge for the government is relaxing the ongoing lockdown in such a careful manner that the virulent virus can be kept under control, say experts and economists.
Apparel makers favoured production in their factories, fearing they might lose international orders worth US$ 3.0 billion to their major competitor Vietnam.
In response, the government allowed production at the apparel units, though their level of compliance with the health and safety guidelines remains a big question.
Not only the apparel units, transaction hours in commercial banks have recently been raised by an hour while some of the key government offices reopened.
Economists and health experts, however, were critical of immediate resumption of trade and economic activities as Bangladesh has just entered into the most challenging phase of the pandemic.
They urged the government to stop taking any step that could further worsen the situation.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, executive director at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, or PRI, said this is a critical decision for any government in any part of the world on whether they will resume economic activity or not.
"Bangladesh has yet to reach its peak. We're just a few weeks behind it," he said.
Dr Mansur, who worked for the International Monetary Fund, said the reopening of clothing units is not a right decision at this moment as the plants are not maintaining the proper healthcare protocol.
"The BGMEA has issued a guideline for the matter, it did not make it mandatory for the factories," he noted.
Dr Mansur said all garment plants are located in Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur and Chattogram, where most positive cases were detected. "To my mind, this may bring a new risk for the country," he said.
He said there is a need for strong government monitoring of the health safety measures in the clothing sector.
"This is a very tricky decision. Damn you do, damn you don't type of situation. If you reopen, as has already been done, you risk undoing efforts to flatten the virus spread curve," said economist Dr Zahid Hussain.
"If you don't reopen, the livelihoods of millions of workers who depend on the functioning of these factories are subjected to very high risks," he added.
One critical factor in resolving this dilemma is the stage of the spread curve in the country.
Based on the official data, it seems it is an exponentially rising part of the curve, he noted.
"The number of infected cases found every day is very sensitive to the number of tests done. The more we test, the more infections we find. We do not seem to have flattened the curve yet," said Dr Hussain who served as the lead economist at Dhaka office of the World Bank.
He said other critical factor on the health side is the capacity of the health system to handle patients -the capacity to test, isolate and treat is very low and uneven across different parts of the country.
"Considering these two sides of the factors, we do not appear to be ready to reopen," he said.
However, the economist said the livelihood compulsion is pressing as well.
Moreover, enforcement of physical distancing even when factories were closed were weak and uneven, he said, adding the reopening should only be allowed in the factories which have the capacity to ensure compliance with social distancing and the prescribed hygienic practices.
Factories using automated processes should be given priority and owners have to take the responsibility for compliance with physical distancing and hygiene, he said.
"They have to walk the talk. The DIFE needs to monitor and strictly enforce regulations where they find breaches. We should also deploy third party monitoring to complement the DIFE's supervisory efforts," Dr Hussain argued.
He also said the country needs to expand the coverage of the social protection system to support the livelihood of workers and mobilise resources from the public exchequer, the private sector and the international donors to finance it.
Ashraful Hassan, managing director at the Grameen Knit at the Dhaka EPZ, said that 100 per cent reopening of a factory will not be a wise decision.
He said 30 per cent workers should be allowed for two weeks then they will go for two weeks of quarantines.
Stressing the proper government monitoring, he said, "Life first and livelihood later."
Director of Sheikh Rasel Gastro Liver Institute and Hospital at Mohakhali Professor Dr. Faruque Ahmed was critical of the government decision on opening factories in the apparel industrial hubs and restaurants for selling Iftar items.
He said the COVID-19 infection rate is high in lower or lower-middle income groups, who gave less importance to social distancing and stay-home policy.
"Such a decision will certainly enhance the risk of spreading the pandemic," said the director of the hospital, which is one of the government's selected healthcare facilities dedicated to COVID-19 patients.
He said the apparel makers assured of applying social distancing in their factories. "But how can they ensure it with using single passage for both entry and exit at factories and who will monitor the workers while they will be in their small dormitories?" Dr Ahmed questioned.
Contacted, BSMMU associate professor (respiratory medicine) Dr. Shamim Ahmed said the most critical period of the viral disease is 50-70 days after detection of the first case.
He said Bangladesh has already entered the most critical period and the number of infections keeps ballooning.
"We should not allow anything that could enhance the risk. I think we need to stay home as lockdown and social distancing can prevent 90 per cent of the fatalities,"
To prevent the pandemic from spreading, the government first shut down educational institutions from March 16 last for an indefinite period.
