Vladimir Putin's persistent denial notwithstanding, Russia has invaded Ukraine. Its troops have taken control of many Ukrainian cities and are about to enter Kyiv, the capital city. Russian actions have created shock waves in Europe and raised tensions in other places. Unfortunately, weeks of diplomatic efforts and a UN Security Council emergency meeting on the issue could not deter Russia from invading a sovereign and independent country. As Russia started amassing troops along the Ukraine border, Europe, the US and NATO stepped up efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the Russian security concern. But Mr Putin instead of reciprocating has opted for a military solution to the problem.
Russian action has prompted the leading Western countries, including the USA, the UK and Germany, and NATO, to impose new sanctions on Russia. Many Russian individuals and entities are already facing various types of sanctions. The sanctions that are now in place, however, have had little effect on Russia. And Putin has taken measures to cushion the ill effects of possible new sanctions.
The people of Ukraine have already started paying a heavy cost in an uneven war, with none coming to their aid. Putin though denies having any intention of keeping Ukraine under Russian occupation is unlikely to come to the negotiating table until the western countries allay his country's security concerns. Russia has made no secret of its concern over the strategic intention of NATO. Managing some members of the erstwhile Soviet Union by NATO into its orbit in clear disregard of the spirit of the 'Founding Act' signed between NATO and Russia in 1997 on mutual relation, cooperation and security made the latter apprehensive of the intention of the former. This time, tensions heightened over the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. Russia does not want to see NATO soldiers stationed at its border with Ukraine.
Some analysts have termed the crisis emanating from Russia's latest action as the most serious one since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Others are worried but do not foresee the conflict going beyond the Ukrainian borders. But the global economy, which is reeling from Covid shock and is now in a recovery mode, stands to suffer from the Ukraine crisis. Rising inflation has hit most countries, rich and poor, primarily because of the rise in fuel oil and commodity prices. The Russian invasion pushed oil prices up beyond US$100. Stock markets also experienced a notable fall as an immediate reaction to the development. If the crisis persists, there could be deterioration in the situation further.
No matter how grave Russia's security concern is, invading a sovereign and independent country to find a solution is not justified and acceptable. Some of its citizens have taken to the streets of Moscow in protest against the invasion. Russian actions and the West's sanctions would only trigger suffering. The worst sufferers will be the Ukrainians; thousands have already fled the country and taken refuge in neighbouring countries. Mr Putin must understand there will be no alternative to negotiations, even after achieving his objectives, including regime change in Ukraine.
