The World Bank (WB) on Monday has expressed doubts about the Bangladesh’s 7.65 per cent GDP growth projection for the current fiscal raising questions regarding some government data.
The Washington-based lender also said the GDP growth is expected to be within the range of 6.5 to 6.6 per cent in the medium term of the current fiscal.
“The robust growth for the current fiscal is doubtful as its correlation with some government statistics is not matched,” said WB Lead Economist Dr Zahid Hussain during a presentation of the Bangladesh Development Update Dhaka.
Hussain raised questions about the government data of the higher manufacturing growth, lower service sector growth compared to its higher job creation, production capacity of the industrial sector, stagnant investment, labour income growth and remittance growth, volatile food and non-food inflation data.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has recently revealed that Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at 7.65 per cent in FY18, which is even higher than its target of 7.5 per cent.
“How this higher growth is furnished with this production capacity in the industrial sector we are noticing over the years? It is only be possible when the production capacity will picked up. But question is --how the capacity has climbed within a year?” Dr Hussain questioned.
He said the manufacturing sector has been estimated to grow faster this year than last year although the private sector investment is observed almost stagnant over the years.
The Lead Economists said the growth is shown mainly based on the expansion of the consumer’s demand or consumption which is not in sync with government’s relevant data.
“But we do not see any leap in any of the cases. The growth of employment was at 2.2 per cent while the labour income was at 2.7 per cent in 2017,” he added.
“Remittance inflows have recovered. Yet, the level of remittance still remains 2.7 per cent less than in July-march of fiscal year 2015-16,” he said.
He asked an explanation or clarification on the government data of projected growth for FY18.
WB Country Director Qimiao Fan was present among others at the function in Dhaka.
