A spike in inflationary pressure is projected for September on the back of a rising trend in the prices of key commodities in the international market.
Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) predicted the overall point-to-point inflation close to 6.0 per cent at the end of this month.
However, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) earlier estimated the overall inflation at 5.52 per cent for June 2019.
MCCI has drawn this picture of inflation in its latest publication styled 'Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh April-June 2019' issued on Wednesday.
In the fortnight ending July 2019, MCCI said, the price of parboiled Indian rice (5.0 per cent broken) rose by 1.6 per cent to $375 per tonne.
Rice is the important commodity as it has the highest weight in measuring the inflation.
The price of West Bengal coarse rice and that of the staple in Dhaka rose by 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent at $336 and $333 per tonne respectively.
The prices of Thai (5.0 per cent) and Vietnam (15 per cent) white rice fell by 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent to $392 and $313 per tonne respectively.
But the price of Pakistan parboiled rice (5.0 per cent broken) remained unchanged at $385 per tonne.
MCCI, the country's premier trade body, also said the foreign exchange reserve is likely to fall at the end of the Jul-Sept quarter by more than $200 million.
It sought to attribute this fall to payments to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) against imports.
MCCI also forecasts an increase in the volume of export, import and remittance.
It said the monthly shipment in September will expand to $3.3 billion, up by $125 million from last August.
The trade organisation said the import will hike by $70 million to $5.4 billion at the end of September.
Foreign remittance may swell to approximately $1.7 billion at the end of this month, up by $90 million from the August volume.
MCCI uses data from sources like Bangladesh Bank and BBS.
Based on the latest market situation, it also forecasts on some macro-economic variables.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com