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IMF projects 7.8pc growth

FE Report | Published: October 16, 2019 10:06:40 | Updated: October 19, 2019 11:01:41


Reuters file photo

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a 7.8 per cent economic growth for Bangladesh in 2019.

The October 2019 version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Tuesday morning in Washington DC, unveiled the projection. The title of the outlook is 'Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers.'

The IMF also projected that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Bangladesh will be slower, at the rate of 7.4 per cent and 7.3 per cent in 2020 and 2024 respectively.

Bangladesh estimates annual GDP growth on the basis of its financial year (July-June). The Washington-based global monetary watchdog, however, projects the GDP growth on calendar year basis.

Earlier, the IMF estimated the country's GDP growth at 7.6 per cent for the ongoing fiscal year (FY), 2019-20, in its latest staff report on Article IV Consultation Mission of Bangladesh. It was 8.0 per cent for FY 19.

"Rising trade and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty about the future of the global trading system and international cooperation more generally, taking a toll on business confidence, investment decisions, and global trade," according to the latest WEO.

It also said a notable shift towards increased monetary policy accommodation - through both action and communication - has cushioned the impact of these tensions on financial market sentiment and activity, while a generally resilient service sector has supported employment growth.

The world economy is projected to grow at 3.0 per cent in 2019 - a significant drop from 2017-18 for emerging markets and developing economies as well as advanced economies - before recovering to 3.4 per cent in 2020.

However, a slightly higher growth rate is projected for 2021-24. This global growth pattern reflects a major downturn and projected recovery in a group of emerging market economies, it added.

By contrast, growth is expected to moderate into 2020 and beyond for a group of systemic economies comprising the United States, Euro area, China and Japan, which together account for close to half of the global GDP, according to the WEO.

A media briefing was arranged to formally unveil the WEO on the eve of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in 2019.

Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department of the IMF, presented the highlights of its flagship report at its headquarters on Tuesday.

siddique.islam@gmail.com

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