Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a leading think-tank of the country, projected that the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be 2.50 per cent in the current fiscal year (FY20) due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
“CPD estimates suggest that the GDP growth in FY20 was likely to come down to about 2.5 per cent under the most optimistic scenario if further ‘general holidays’ are not announced or stricter measures are not enforced during the rest of days of the fiscal year,” said the organisation on Sunday while releasing the final interim IRBD report for FY20.
CPD organised a virtual media briefing on ‘State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2019-20 and Budget Challenges’ on Sunday morning to present the key features of the report.
“Given the unprecedented nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, the decline in economic growth should not be perceived as something unexpected and exceptional,” said the report.
“Countries across the globe, developed, developing and least developed, have been experiencing lower, and at worst, negative growth rates,” it added.
CPD also mentioned that World Bank forecasted that the economic growth of Bangladesh in FY20 will be between 2.0-3.0 per cent while International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected this to be 3.8 per cent.
“The general consensus is that the GDP growth rate will be significantly lower than the planned target of 8.20 per cent,” it added.
Earlier, Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), another leading think-tank of the country, projected that GDP would post mere 2.25 per cent growth in FY20 due to big disruption of economic activities amidst the coronavirus pandemic.
“Even if the government’s claim of 8.0 per cent growth in the first eight months of FY20 is accepted, a conservative assessment of a negative growth of (-) 9.0 per cent for the remaining period will yield an overall growth 2.25 per cent for the entire fiscal year,” said PRI in a policy brief in April.
